A survey released this week from A2 Insights has Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears trailing Democrat Abigail Spanberger by just three points in Virginia’s gubernatorial election, putting the contest firmly within the margin of error as early voting picks up steam. The poll, taken September 26-28 among likely voters, pegs Spanberger at 47.7 percent and Earle-Sears at 44.6 percent, with about 6 percent undecided.
This marks a significant shift from earlier surveys, like one from Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center in mid-September that had Spanberger ahead by 12 points, or an Emerson College/The Hill poll from late September showing her with a 10-point edge.
The narrowing margin arrives amid a series of stumbles for Spanberger, whose campaign has drawn fire for heated rhetoric and murky positions on key issues. At several events last month, she urged crowds to “let your rage fuel you,” a call that Earle-Sears countered directly by reminding Virginians of their state’s longstanding motto.
“Virginia is for lovers — not rage,” Earle-Sears declared, framing her bid around bringing people together rather than stoking division. This contrast has resonated in a state still healing from recent political battles, where voters appear weary of inflammatory language that could deepen divides.
Spanberger’s handling of transgender policies has also come under scrutiny, particularly her reluctance to take a firm stand on biological males in women’s sports and restrooms. When pressed, she described previous state approaches as handling cases on a “one-by-one basis,” but avoided a straightforward response. Earle-Sears, in contrast, has been unequivocal in her opposition, arguing that such policies protect women’s safety and fairness in athletics. Videos of Spanberger dodging questions on this topic have circulated widely online, boosting Earle-Sears’s visibility and allowing her to portray herself as more accessible and direct with voters.
Endorsements and staff behavior have added to Spanberger’s challenges. Chesterfield County School Board member Dot Heffron, an early backer, faced calls for resignation from Gov. Glenn Youngkin after she praised the idea of assassinating Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk. Spanberger eventually distanced herself, condemning “any efforts to justify or minimize” political violence. But the damage lingered when a campaign staffer reportedly posted “F around and find out” in response to Kirk’s hypothetical death, prompting Earle-Sears and Virginia Republicans to demand accountability. These incidents have painted Spanberger’s team as tolerant of extreme views, alienating moderates who prioritize civility.
Immigration stands out as another dividing line. Spanberger has pledged to repeal Youngkin’s executive order mandating local cooperation with ICE, a move that would effectively make Virginia a sanctuary for illegal immigrants. Youngkin fired back, accusing her of putting “dangerous criminals” ahead of public safety. Earle-Sears has echoed this, vowing to maintain tough enforcement to shield communities from crime linked to open borders.
President Donald Trump weighed in as well, blasting Spanberger for backing “men in women’s sports” and “open borders,” warnings that Earle-Sears has amplified to rally conservative voters concerned about family values and security.
Even as Spanberger maintains a fundraising lead—outspending Earle-Sears two-to-one to blanket the airwaves—signs point to Republican momentum. Early voting data from the Virginia Public Access Project shows ballots cast so far doubling the pace from 2021, with nearly half coming from GOP-leaning districts. Social media sentiment analysis by Impact Social reveals Earle-Sears enjoying a +18 net rating, while Spanberger sits at -28, partly because Democrats are fixated on criticizing Trump instead of building enthusiasm for their candidate.
As the analysis notes, “venting against Trump while failing to support the Democratic candidate or attack their opponent” limits their reach, adding that “relying on Trump as a mobilizing foil can only go so far. If Democrats cannot channel that oppositional energy into genuine support for their own candidates, they risk losing these contests.”
Earle-Sears’s campaign reset over the summer, including staff changes and a sharper focus on education and parental rights in northern Virginia suburbs, mirrors the strategy that propelled Youngkin to victory in 2021. A half-million-dollar donation from BET co-founder Robert L. Johnson, following a racist protest sign aimed at Earle-Sears during an Arlington school board meeting, has further energized her efforts. Spanberger, a former CIA officer, has leaned on endorsements like the Virginia Police Benevolent Association and appeals to independents, but shifts in voter support—such as her growing edge among younger demographics in the Emerson poll—haven’t fully offset the tightening overall race.
With November 4 approaching, Virginia’s off-year election could signal broader trends for 2026. Earle-Sears’s surge suggests Republicans have a real shot at holding the governor’s mansion, especially if they continue capitalizing on cultural flashpoints and turnout advantages.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
