Nov. 9, 2022: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wanted “genuine peace talks” with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. The West nudged Zelensky’s initiation of peace discussions, because U.S. public support for Ukraine’s war could dwindle if no potential end were in sight.
Nov. 16, 2022: Joe Biden’s White House asked Congress for another $37 billion for the war in Ukraine on top of the $54–68 billion already given.
Dec. 2, 2022: Joe Biden continued his idiotic stance of not speaking to President Putin because, “We’re just not at a point where talks seem to be a fruitful avenue to approach right now.” This sort of irrational foreign policy shows a callus disregard for human life and supports the statement of Robert Gates, defense secretary in the Obama administration when he stated, “[Biden has] been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.” If there is a chance to stop the killing in a war, why wouldn’t you take that chance?
Dec. 23, 2022: The just-voted-out Democrat-controlled House and Democrat-led Senate, while in “lame-duck” session, ignoring the will of the people of the United States after the November 2022 election where the House flipped from Democrat to Republican, decided to pass a 4,100 page $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill, including $45 billion in additional funding for Ukraine. On Nov. 16, 2022 (above), the Biden White House had asked Congress for only $37 billion, but Congress, being generous with taxpayer money, gave an additional $8 billion more than requested. This brings the total sent to Ukraine to somewhere between $99 and $113 billion.
Examining the breakdown of what we know about the moneys sent to Ukraine, only 5% of the total was designated for humanitarian needs. Of course, 61% of the money has been in military assistance, but a whopping 34% of the money is designated for financial assistance, including budgetary aid and economic support. This sounds shady when you consider that Zelensky’s inner circle is buying multi-million dollar mansions in Switzerland, beachfront property in Montenegro, U.S. factories and U.S. commercial real estate. Then there are Zelensky’s friends like Mykola Zlochevsky, whom Ukrainian authorities suspect of “theft of government funds on an especially large scale.”
Dec. 25, 2022: On Christmas Day President Putin stated, “We are ready to negotiate with everyone involved about acceptable solutions, but that is up to them – we are not the ones refusing to negotiate; they are.” Continuing, Putin said, “I believe that we are acting in the right direction. We are defending our national interests, the interests of our citizens, our people. And we have no other choice but to protect our citizens.”
One article further stated, “Putin equates his ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine to a watershed moment – in that it was when Moscow finally stood up to a Western bloc that has been looking to destroy Russia since the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union.” Putin also blamed the West for actually starting present conflict and claimed that in 2014 the West toppled the pro-Russian Ukrainian president in the Maiden Revolution protests.
It seems that with the olive branch extended last Christmas someone would want to talk with Putin and ask questions. For example, what are your “national interests?” What are “the interests of your citizens?” And how do you explain your view that the West is trying to “destroy Russia?”
Perhaps Putin’s interests include eliminating U.S. funded Ukrainian bio-labs, or immoral stances the West has taken on marriage and gender. Who knows what his points are, if you refuse to talk with him.
Instead of speaking with Putin, CIA Director William Burns stated that while most conflicts end in negotiation, Russia was not serious about real talks. An adviser to Zelensky stated Putin needed to return to reality and acknowledge it was Russia that did not want talks.
So, by Dec. 25, 2022, Putin said he wanted to talk, but the West and Ukraine said Putin does not want to have peace talks. It seems like if you can stop the killing, everyone would jump at the idea.
Dec. 29, 2022: Joe Biden signed into law the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill, including $45 billion in additional funding for Ukraine.
It should be mentioned that Biden would not speak with Putin in December of 2021 either, because Putin wanted guarantees that Ukraine would not join NATO, something the U.S. president said was a “nonstarter.” This contributed to Putin initiating his military operation in February 2022. On July 10, 2023, Biden said that Ukraine is not ready to join NATO. That was the conversation Putin wanted to have before the war began.
My question is, if in November of 2022 Zelensky, at the nudging of the West, stated he wanted peace negotiations, and then on Dec. 25, 2022, Putin extended the olive branch for peace negotiations, but no one would talk with him, what could have happened that changed everyone’s mind concerning the peace negotiations? You don’t think Congress giving $45 billion to Ukraine by Dec. 23, 2022, and signed into law by Biden December 29, 2022, could have had anything to do with halting the idea of peace negotiations, do you?
Now there is talk of sending more money and controversial civilian-killing cluster bombs against the opinion of 123 countries who signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions pact prohibiting these munitions. In fact, Biden is bypassing U.S. law prohibiting the production, use, or transfer of cluster munitions with a failure rate of more than 1%. The U.S. munitions failure rate is 2.5%. These “duds” just blow up arbitrarily at any time in the future, often killing civilians. Does this sound like a deescalation, or an escalation? Does Ukraine really need more of Americans’ money?
Well, I guess it is true that the 2024 elections are fast approaching, and the Democrats will need more funds – for their political coffers.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
Biden is always wrong about everything. He reminds me of the Seinfeld episode where George figures out to do the exact opposite of what he thinks he should do and he’s always right. Biden the Alzheimer’s puppet of the globalists. He is all bravado. As they say in Texas, Big Hat and no cattle.