We are getting dangerously close to a point of no return. For months, both sides have been continuously escalating the war in Ukraine, and now it appears that we are on the verge of the biggest escalation of them all. As I have been repeatedly warning my readers for weeks, the Russians have been gathering hundreds of thousands of fresh troops for a massive winter offensive. The exhausted Ukrainian forces are already stretched incredibly thin, and the losses that they have been suffering over the past couple of months have been nothing short of catastrophic. If the Russians decide to bring the hammer down, the Ukrainians will be in very serious trouble.
Of course this is completely contrary to the propaganda that we have been fed for months. We have been told over and over again that “the Ukrainians are winning”, but that was just a bunch of nonsense.
Now reality is setting in, and the Ukrainians are openly warning that “Russia is preparing for maximum escalation”…
Russia is preparing to launch a major new offensive against Ukraine in the coming weeks, a top Ukrainian security official said, adding to mounting concerns in Kyiv and the West that the Kremlin is preparing a renewed push to seize large areas of the country.
“Russia is preparing for maximum escalation,” said Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, in an interview with Sky News published online early Wednesday local time. “It is gathering everything possible, doing drills and training.”
Yes, if the Russians send hundreds of thousands of fresh troops pouring into Ukraine, it will definitely be considered an enormous escalation of the conflict.
Another Ukrainian official is claiming that the Russians have gathered a total of 500,000 troops for the coming offensive…
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told French media on Wednesday that Russia had 500,000 troops ready for an attack to come in weeks. That number is far higher than the 300,000 newly enlisted soldiers Russian President Vladimir Putin called up this past autumn.
“Officially, they announced 300,000, but when we see the troops at the borders, according to our assessments it is much more,” Reznikov said.
If that number is accurate, this Russian force is much, much larger than the force that originally invaded Ukraine.
In other words, it looks like the Russians have decided that it is time to stop messing around.
According to Reznikov, the Ukrainians are anticipating that the Russians will attack from the east and the south…
He said Russia was likely to ‘try an offensive on two fronts’: In the country’s east, which has been at the centre of brutal fighting in recent months, and in the south.
That assessment may indeed turn out to be accurate.
But I think that the best move for the Russians would be to bring down a hammer blow from the north.
In any event, once the Russians commit hundreds of thousands of new troops to the war, there will inevitably be a response by the western powers.
So what will that be?
Well, former UK Defense Minister Sir Gerald Howarth says that it may become necessary to send NATO troops into Ukraine.
FORMER DEFENSE MINISTER OF UK SAYS NATO FORCES MAY NEED TO FACE RUSSIA ON THE GROUND pic.twitter.com/7LJ3Nksniq
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) January 31, 2023
Of course if that happens we will have NATO troops and Russian troops directly firing at one another.
And once we get to that stage we are just a hop, skip and a jump away from nuclear war.
The Russians understand this very well, and Russian President Vladimir Putin just threatened us with nuclear weapons once again…
“Those who draw European countries, including Germany, into a new war with Russia, and … expect to win a victory over Russia on the battlefield, apparently don’t understand that a modern war with Russia will be quite different for them,” he added.
“We don’t send our tanks to their borders but we have the means to respond, and it won’t end with the use of armoured vehicles, everyone must understand that.”
Putin makes vague nuclear threats over western tank supplies to Ukraine.
“Those who plan to defeat Russia on the battlefield don’t understand a modern war with Russia will be very different […] We have ways of responding, and it won’t just be limited to armored vehicles.” pic.twitter.com/ms9ZT4FRdK
— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 2, 2023
Here in the western world, the “experts” keep assuring us that the risk of nuclear war is very low.
But on Russian television, nuclear war has become a central theme.
In fact, just the other day a video that simulated a Poseidon doomsday weapon being used against the UK was broadcast to a nationwide audience…
Russian state TV have broadcast a mock video of the UK being obliterated by a tsunami set off by a nuclear missile sent from Moscow.
The sick footage shows a Russian state anchor revelling as the missile plummets into to the North Atlantic Ocean, sparking a giant tidal wave that engulfs both Ireland and the UK.
We need to try to find a peaceful way out of this mess while we still can.
Because once the first nuke is used, there will be no going back.
Meanwhile, we just continue to get even closer to a war with China…
Just days after a top U.S. military official warned that the United States should be prepared for a war with China over Taiwan in 2025, Beijing on Wednesday conducted the largest incursion of Taiwanese airspace in weeks.
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported that 34 Chinese military aircraft, along with nine naval vessels, were detected near the self-governing island at around 3 a.m. local time.
And the North Koreans are warning that recent actions by the U.S. have pushed matters on the Korean peninsula to an “extreme red line”.
North Korea threatened to respond to any military moves by the U.S. with ‘the most overwhelming nuclear force’ if necessary, saying that military drills by Washington and its allies have pushed the situation in the Korean peninsula to an ‘extreme red-line’ https://t.co/PfWOXeJY3J pic.twitter.com/uXflrsyLK1
— Reuters (@Reuters) February 2, 2023
On top of everything else, we have reached a point where a full-blown war between Israel and Iran could literally start at any moment.
When the missiles start flying, the elite will run off to their doomsday bunkers.
Where will you go?
You might want to start thinking about that.
As I discuss in my latest book, if you live anywhere near a nuclear missile silo or a military base, I would highly suggest relocating.
Leaders all over the globe seem to be catching “war fever”, and eventually somebody is going to push things too far.
We truly are on a collision course with destiny, and right now those that are running things have absolutely no intention of changing direction.
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Article cross-posted from End of the American Dream.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
