(End of the American Dream)—President Trump has just said that Iran will have about a “month” to make a deal. If you look at the calendar, about a month from now we will be very close to the end of Ramadan. I think that President Trump is hoping that the military preparations that the U.S. is making in the Middle East will convince Iran to make significant concessions. But the Iranians have repeatedly told us that they must be allowed to continue to enrich uranium and that there will be absolutely no negotiations regarding their ballistic missile program or their support for proxies in the region. So there is no way that a deal is going to happen. In the end, either President Trump will pull the trigger or the Israelis will go in alone.
Either way, it appears that a final showdown with Iran is coming.
With each passing day, we get closer to the fateful moment when the missiles will start flying.
We are being told that the U.S. buildup that we are witnessing in the Middle East right now is “unprecedented in scale”…
The pace of the US Air Force’s buildup of its air force in preparation for a strike on Iran continues to be unprecedented in scale.
At least five KC-135R/T tanker aircraft took off from RAF Mildenhall, en route to southern Europe. They were deployed to support a flight of six F-35A Lightning II fighters belonging to “The Green Mountain Boys” squadron (158th Fighter Wing, Vermont Air National Guard). The aircraft are being deployed from Lakenheath Air Base in the UK to Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan.
According to air traffic monitoring data, the flow of military transport aircraft also remains high and covers several directions at once.
We have never seen anything quite like this before.
On top of everything else, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that another aircraft carrier strike group has been ordered to get ready to go to the Middle East…
The Pentagon has told a second aircraft carrier strike group to prepare to deploy to the Middle East as the U.S. military readies for a potential attack on Iran, according to three U.S. officials.
President Trump said Tuesday that he was weighing sending a second carrier to the Middle East to prepare for military action if negotiations with Iran failed. The order to deploy could be issued in a matter of hours, one of the officials said.
Adding another carrier to the mix will definitely raise tensions in the region.
According to the Journal, the most likely carrier to be deployed is the USS George H.W. Bush…
One of the officials said the Pentagon was readying a carrier to deploy in two weeks, likely from the U.S. East Coast. The aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush is completing a series of training exercises off the coast of Virginia, and it could potentially expedite those exercises, officials say.
The warship can launch and recover strike, electronic attack and reconnaissance aircraft. That includes carrier versions of the F-35 Lighting stealth fighter, according to a Navy official. The Wall Street Journal has previously reported any military strike inside Iran would likely use stealth aircraft, such as F-35 or F-22 Raptor jet fighters and B-2 Spirit bombers.
It is my belief that President Trump would prefer to avoid a shooting war with Iran.
After holding a three hour meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, Trump stated that during the meeting he “insisted that negotiations with Iran continue to see whether or not a Deal can be consummated”…
I have just finished meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu, of Israel, and various of his Representatives. It was a very good meeting, the tremendous relationship between our two Countries continues. There was nothing definitive reached other than I insisted that negotiations with Iran continue to see whether or not a Deal can be consummated. If it can, I let the Prime Minister know that will be a preference. If it cannot, we will just have to see what the outcome will be. Last time Iran decided that they were better off not making a Deal, and they were hit with Midnight Hammer — That did not work well for them. Hopefully this time they will be more reasonable and responsible. Additionally, we discussed the tremendous progress being made in Gaza, and the Region in general. There is truly PEACE in the Middle East. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
It would be wonderful if a deal could be made.
But the Iranians are absolutely determined to continue enriching uranium, and they won’t even talk about their ballistic missile program…
Iran has signaled it could limit its nuclear program in return for sanctions relief, but has rejected the other demands, and that missiles would be a red line.
“No one can make the slightest encroachment on our missiles,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Wednesday, according to Iranian media, “our missiles are not a subject of negotiation and will not be.”
That won’t fly with the Israelis.
Following his meeting with Trump, Netanyahu once again reaffirmed that any agreement with the Iranians must include limitations on Iran’s ballistic missile program…
“I do not hide my general skepticism about the possibility of reaching any agreement with Iran. However, I made it clear that if an agreement is reached, it must include the important components for us, for the State of Israel, and in my opinion also for the entire international community: not only the nuclear issue, but also the ballistic missiles and the Iranian proxies in the region.”
The Israelis have already made it very clear that they are prepared to attack Iran alone if necessary.
So there will be war no matter what Trump ultimately decides to do.
For now, Trump says that he is giving the Iranians a “month” to make a deal…
President Trump said Thursday that Iran would face a “very traumatic” moment if it doesn’t make a deal with the US “over the next month.”
“We have to make a deal, otherwise it’s going to be very traumatic, very traumatic,” Trump told reporters at the White House — one day after he met privately with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Asked about his timeline for an agreement to be reached, Trump said: “I guess over the next month.”
“Phase two will be very tough for them,” he added. “I’m not looking for that.”
Why is Trump giving Iran a month?
Well, I think that he realizes that attacking Iran during the month of Ramadan would be deeply offensive to Muslims all over the world.
In just a few days, approximately a quarter of the entire population of the globe will begin celebrating Ramadan…
More than 2 billion Muslims worldwide will soon begin observing Ramadan with the sighting of the waxing crescent moon.
During Ramadan, which begins in mid-February in 2026, Muslims focus on God-consciousness, self-reflection, and self-improvement as they fast, abstaining from food and water between sunrise and sunset.
This year, the first night of Ramadan is expected to start on the evening of February 17th…
According to Islamic Relief, the first night of Ramadan in 2026 is expected to happen on Tuesday evening, Feb. 17. As of Feb. 11, the start of Ramadan is approximately 6 days away. The holy month will last 29–30 days, until the sighting of the next waxing crescent moon.
The end of Ramadan will fall some time in the middle of March.
That roughly corresponds with the deadline that Trump has just given to Iran.
Interestingly, next month there will be a blood moon eclipse on Purim for the third year in a row too.
Will next month be the time when the Middle East erupts in flames, or will we get another reprieve?
The clock is ticking, and a global nightmare of epic proportions is right at the door.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
