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In this Gatestone Institute article, Amir Taheri details how President Trump has outmaneuvered Iran’s regime in a prolonged conflict, exposing Tehran’s illusions of eventual victory while positioning the U.S. as the clear winner so far.
- Trump was the only U.S. president to seriously attempt mending relations with Iran, including withdrawing from Obama’s nuclear deal and sending a personal letter via Shinzo Abe offering a “new beginning,” which Khamenei rejected.
- Despite reluctance, Trump engaged in limited military actions, imposing a ceasefire after three days of bombing in June 2025, but Tehran misinterpreted it as weakness and reignited proxy attacks on Israel.
- Trump has maintained low U.S. casualties (only 16 in over 100 days), avoided boots-on-the-ground quagmires like Vietnam, and used measured blockades and negotiations to deepen divisions within the Iranian regime.
- Iran has suffered devastating losses: over 7,000 dead (including 3,000 military), $400+ billion in infrastructure and oilfield damage, with key assets potentially lost forever.
- Both sides publicly tout imminent accords—Trump 38 times and Iranian sources 22 times in recent months—yet neither wants to revert to full-scale early-war intensity that devastated Iran.
- Tehran’s strategy relies on waiting out Trump until U.S. midterms, believing he will lose, but this is a “foolish dream” that will only compound Iran’s heavier losses the longer it delays a truce.
- Trump’s psychological and economic pressure keeps Iran’s “feet to the fire” without total collapse, succeeding where pure bombing campaigns historically fail, as seen in WWII examples like Coventry.
- The author concludes that wars involving Iran will not end without regime change in Tehran, driven by the Iranian people themselves rather than external imposition.
Read the full story:
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/22601/trump-iran-foolish-dream
