(The Economic Collapse Blog)—Without sufficient quantities of oil, the global economy will not be able to operate normally. So the fact that the global economy is running a massive “oil deficit” right now should deeply alarm all of us. Even since the war with Iran began, the world has been consuming far more oil than it has been producing. We have been running down commercial oil inventories and strategic oil reserves all over the planet, and now those supplies are starting to run dry. In the not too distant future, global demand for oil will substantially exceed what is available, and that will mean much higher prices and very painful shortages. Asia will be hit the hardest because they are more dependent on oil from the Middle East than anyone else, but we will certainly feel this crisis very keenly as well.
According to the International Energy Agency, global oil stocks are being depleted at a record pace and they could reach “critical levels” by the middle of the summer…
Global oil inventories could hit critically low levels ahead of the peak July-August fuel demand period if drawdowns continue at their current pace, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.
Global oil stocks fell by more than 250M barrels between March and May, with on-land commercial and strategic stockpiles draining at a record pace, the IEA reported.
“We’re seeing stock draws continuing into the summer, and with the possibility or the likelihood that we reach critical levels or historical low levels just ahead of the peak summer demand,” said Toril Bosoni, the head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division.
This isn’t a crisis that may or may not happen someday.
This is a crisis that is very real and that is rapidly approaching.
One expert is warning that we are headed for a “disaster” and that rationing could start to happen in some areas of the globe during the months ahead…
The supply situation is manageable for now, but higher summer demand in July and August likely would lead to rationing, Baron Lamarre, former head of trading at Petronas, told Dow Jones.
“The cry is that they want a deal right now because if they don’t have it three months from now, there will be a disaster,” Lamarre said.
A lot of people out there seem to think that the U.S. will be immune because we produce so much of the oil that we use.
But the truth is that U.S. oil stocks just fell “to their lowest level in two decades”…
Donald Trump’s Iran war has driven US oil stocks to their lowest level in two decades as his administration drains stockpiles to contain surging prices and exporters capitalise on the drop in Middle Eastern supply.
US government data published on Wednesday showed total stocks of crude and petroleum products such as petrol fell by 10.6mn barrels last week to 1.57bn barrels — the lowest level since 2004.
The sharp fall triggered new warnings from industry analysts that oil prices are poised to move sharply higher again within weeks.
We are running an “oil deficit” too.
It isn’t as severe as what we are witnessing in other industrialized nations, but it is significant.
Withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve have helped keep things running fairly smoothly, but the fact that in recent weeks we have seen “the largest weekly withdrawals in history” is not a good sign at all…
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is also part of the backdrop. The EIA reported that SPR inventories fell by 9.1 million barrels during the week and were 36.2 million barrels below year-ago levels. The recent drawdowns in the SPR have been the largest weekly withdrawals in history.
Gasoline inventories in the U.S. are falling too.
In fact, we just witnessed the largest February to May gasoline drawdown ever recorded…
In early February, U.S. gasoline inventories reached 259.1 million barrels. By late May, they had fallen by 47.5 million barrels in roughly 15 weeks.
In weekly EIA data going back to 1990, there is not another February-to-May gasoline drawdown that comes close. The next-largest drawdowns were clustered around 30 million barrels, and that was 15 years ago. This year’s decline is far larger.
That does not mean gasoline shortages are imminent. It does mean the market has burned through a remarkable amount of inventory before the summer driving season has even fully arrived.
If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, shortages are inevitable.
The only debate is about when they will hit.
One industry insider just told Politico that his company has warned “the highest levels of government about what’s coming in mid-to-late June”…
“We’re at dangerously low levels already,” said one industry executive who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations with the administration. “We have shared those concerns at the highest levels of government about what’s coming in mid-to-late June. … I hope they are paying attention to inventories right now. You’re hitting tank bottom.”
He isn’t talking about June 2027.
He is talking about this month.
Another expert is warning that we could be “looking at industrial shortages” if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not change by September or October…
Drained storage tanks are an “iceberg under the water,” Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said during a Council on Foreign Relations event Wednesday.
“You may not see immediately on the horizon the actual economic challenges that will be coming, because you look at the flat price and you say, ‘OK, we can muddle through this and Iran will come to terms eventually,’” Croft said. “But if we get in a situation where we have this strait effectively closed, or the strait status quo, and we’re sitting in September or October, then you’re going to be looking at industrial shortages.”
Needless to say, an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is not going to happen right away.
If the U.S. and Iran are able to eventually reach an agreement, we are being told that it could take six to eight months to fully restore traffic to pre-war levels…
A full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could take 6-8 months in the best-case scenario if an agreement was reached today, Bosoni said at the S&P Global Energy Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference in London.
What this means is that global energy supplies are going to get tighter every single day for an extended period of time no matter what occurs now.
Gasoline prices will continue to rise, and shortages and rationing are looming.
We desperately need the war to end and the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened as soon as possible.
But I don’t think that is going to happen.
Instead, I think that the Great Middle East War will soon go to an entirely new level, and that won’t be good for the global economy at all.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
Starting the Day With a Scripture-Inspired Roast Helps Center Your Thoughts on Eternal Truths Amid Temporal Pressures
The world can seem chaotic, especially right after we wake up. Many believers start their mornings reaching for something familiar — a hot cup of coffee — yet end up settling for mediocre brews that do little more than deliver a caffeine jolt. The daily grind of life, with its endless distractions, news cycles, and responsibilities, can leave even the most faithful feeling spiritually parched alongside their physical fatigue. What if your morning ritual could do more than wake you up? What if it could ground you in truth, nourish your body with exceptional quality, and quietly advance a kingdom purpose at the same time?
That’s the promise — and the reality — behind Promised Grounds Coffee. This Christian-founded company doesn’t just roast beans; it approaches every step as an act of worship and discipleship. By selecting only the top 10% of specialty-grade beans, ethically sourced from dedicated farmers in Central and South America, and small-batch roasting them with reverence in Austin, Texas, Promised Grounds delivers what many describe as the best coffee available — never burnt, never bland, but rich with origin stories and layered flavors that honor God’s creation.
From the vibrant Psalm 27 Roast (a light, bright medium option) to the bold yet peaceful 2 Timothy 1:7 Decaf, each bag carries a Scripture verse that turns your daily pour into a gentle reminder of faith. And through their Ounce Per Ounce Promise, every ounce of coffee you enjoy provides an equal ounce of clean water to families in need via partnership with Filter of Hope — literally brewing hope for body and soul, one cup at a time.
The challenge for today’s Christians runs deeper than finding a decent cup. In an age of convenience-driven consumerism, it’s easy to support companies that dilute values or remain silent on matters of faith. Many believers want their everyday choices — from what they drink to how they spend — to reflect discipleship rather than just convenience. Promised Grounds solves this by weaving Christian excellence into the entire process: beans nurtured with prayerful stewardship by farming families, roasted as an offering rather than a commodity, and packaged with Bible verses to encourage a mindset of gratitude and purpose from the first sip. Reviewers consistently praise the smooth, rich profiles — whether enjoyed black in a drip maker, iced on a warm day, or shared in fellowship — noting how the quality stands toe-to-toe with premium secular brands while delivering something far more meaningful.
This integration of faith and flavor addresses a real need in Christian households and ministries. Busy parents, church leaders, and remote workers alike report that starting the day with a Scripture-inspired roast helps center their thoughts on eternal truths amid temporal pressures. The coffee’s exceptional character — bright citrus notes in lighter roasts or deep chocolate undertones in bolder ones — comes from meticulous selection and careful roasting that respects the bean’s natural gifts rather than masking them. It’s the kind of coffee that elevates a simple quiet time, fuels productive workdays, or sparks meaningful conversations when shared at Bible studies or outreach events. And because it’s ethically sourced with integrity, every purchase supports sustainable livelihoods for farmers who treat their crops like family harvests.
For those leading churches or small groups, the impact multiplies. Promised Grounds offers bundles and options perfect for hospitality ministries, turning ordinary coffee service into an opportunity to point people toward the living water of Christ. Imagine greeting visitors with a warm cup whose very bag carries God’s Word — a subtle yet powerful witness that aligns with the Great Commission. The company’s Texas roots and commitment to “brewing hope” resonate especially with believers who value American enterprise paired with global compassion.
Of course, quality alone isn’t enough if the experience feels out of reach. Promised Grounds keeps it accessible with practical perks like free shipping on orders over $40, sample sets for discovering favorites, and thoughtful add-ons such as faith-themed mugs. Whether you prefer whole beans for fresh grinding, grounds for convenience, or even bulk options for larger households and ministries, the result is consistently superior coffee that makes discipleship feel integrated rather than added on.
As you consider how to align even the smallest habits with your walk with God, Promised Grounds Coffee stands out as a refreshing solution. It tackles the dual problems of subpar daily sustenance and disconnected consumption by offering a product that genuinely excels in taste while advancing a mission of clean water, farmer dignity, and scriptural encouragement. Believers who make the switch often describe it as more than a beverage upgrade — it becomes part of their rhythm of gratitude, a daily invitation to remember that every good gift comes from above.
If you’re ready to transform your mornings (and perhaps your church gatherings) with coffee that honors both exceptional craftsmanship and Christian values, I encourage you to explore what Promised Grounds has to offer. One sip at a time, you’ll be nourishing your body, refreshing your spirit, and participating in something far greater — all while enjoying what truly is among the best coffee available.
