(The Epoch Times)—India, a country the United States and allies had hoped would be a bulwark of democracy against China, is becoming a problem.
The South Asian country is desperately poor, at just $2,400 gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in 2022. Yet it seeks to portray itself as an up-and-coming economic powerhouse. It is increasingly authoritarian. Yet it wants to be seen as all things to all people, including the democracies. Its prime minister, Narendra Modi, is prideful, highly nationalist, and has superpower aspirations. That makes India’s relationship with more responsible powers, including the United States, increasingly strained, not least because of New Delhi’s too close relations with the world’s most dangerous dictators, Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir Putin of Russia.
New Delhi is involved in various international initiatives led by Beijing and is financially complicit in Moscow’s war against Ukraine. The three countries cooperate through joint membership in Beijing-led organizations, including the military-focused Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which is the closest that the three have to an alliance system such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). All three find ideological common ground in their socialist histories and the promotion of a “new multilateral” international system that they seek to exploit in leading the developing world against “imperialism” and the “West.”
This developing trilateral threat is by no means a done deal because India is still a democracy among the wolves and could turn back from the hunt. While China and Russia have been strong allies for years, there is a crack in their relationship when it comes to India, which still seeks and needs Group of Seven (G7) approval, support, and markets.
Simmering border disputes between India and China in the Himalayas, and New Delhi’s private criticism of Moscow’s war with Ukraine, complicate the threat. Its veto power in the SCO could be useful to the democracies. Russia’s deteriorating international position as a pariah state forces it into the arms of both India and China, with New Delhi distancing itself, at least to some extent, from Moscow. Over the last two years, Mr. Modi has gone so far as to skip his annual in-person meetings with Mr. Putin.
India’s continued complicity with Russia’s war where it counts, however, stems from New Delhi’s violation of G7 sanctions against purchasing Russian oil above a price cap of $60 a barrel agreed in 2022. While the cap cost Russia almost $38 billion, India’s evasions pushed the price to about $70 a barrel. That increases the price of gas globally and gives the Kremlin more cash for killing Ukrainian civilians. The world has New Delhi to thank for its unprincipled position and the global pain it is producing.
India uses the extra money to fund imports of Russian oil, arms, and nuclear power plants. The two countries plan to jointly produce weapons, which means that India is importing Russian military technology that can be used in New Delhi’s border disputes with China. This must irk Beijing, but it likely prefers India to rely on Russian rather than American arms. At least then, if there is a Sino-Indian war, Beijing could lean on Moscow to halt arms exports to India, including critical spare parts.
European sanctions on Russia following the Ukraine war diverted its exports East. Now, approximately 90 percent of Russian oil exports go to China and India, with the former importing as much as 50 percent and the latter 40 percent. Without Indian purchases, China would have much greater trade leverage over Russia. So New Delhi plays a spoiler role for Beijing in the latter’s increasing economic dominance.
The more of a pariah Russia becomes, the more Moscow relies on New Delhi to moderate the power of Beijing, drawing the three ever closer into a more stable threat to the democracies. More fully separating India from China and Russia is thus an important U.S. foreign policy goal, which is why Washington is not more openly critical of the South Asian country. Yet more must be done as India has long been “anti-Western,” is increasingly autocratic, and U.S. business risks becoming reliant on its cheap labor in the pivot away from China. That risks increasing Indian political influence in Washington through the same kind of elite capture that previously insulated Beijing from criticism.
To mitigate these risks, the United States and G7 countries must impose economic penalties on India, as the many incentives of the past, including direct development aid, are underappreciated. Our attempts at buying friendship apparently failed, and we are finally realizing that India is a fair-weather friend. Sanctions and tariffs will be needed to shift India away from Russia and China. No G7 country, including the United Kingdom, should execute new free trade agreements with India.
This tough-love approach to a fellow democracy should not be directed at India alone. Rather, new such policies should apply to any country that fails to fully cooperate with the United States and allies against existential threats from Russia and China, not to mention the trilateral threats that emanate from the complicity of third countries like India.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
what’s more worrying is people are JUST waking up to this reality….the US is in such a slumber of sloth and arrogance it’s amazing…and the vast majority do not even want to be awoken