It should have been apparent to everyone that the dark clouds on the horizon would bring a storm, and now rain is furiously falling all around us.
Our entire system is being viciously shaken, and the dominoes are going to continue to fall in the months ahead.
Once Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank went down, we all knew that it was just a matter of time before more large banks started to implode. Now First Republic has failed, and over the weekend U.S. regulators were working very hard to arrange a sale…
U.S. regulators have been trying to clinch a sale of First Republic over the weekend, with roughly half a dozen banks bidding, sources said on Saturday, in what is likely to be the third major U.S. bank to fail in two months. Guggenheim Securities is advising the FDIC, two sources familiar with the matter said on Saturday.
As a I write this article, that still hasn’t happened yet. But it could happen at any moment.
When a sale is finally announced, the FDIC is also expected to tell us that it has seized First Republic…
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp is expected to announce a deal on Sunday night before Asian markets open, with the regulator likely to say at the same time that it had seized the lender, three sources previously told Reuters.
They are trying to time everything so that as little panic as possible is created. But I feel really badly for those that owned First Republic stock. It was going for about 120 dollars a share at the beginning of March, and once the bank is seized by federal regulators it will almost certainly be worthless.
That is how fast these things can happen. More dominoes will fall throughout the rest of 2023, and you don’t want to be caught holding the bag. So do what you need to do while you still have time.
When the Federal Reserve decided to go nuts with their rate hikes, we all knew that this would put enormous pressure on the banks, and that is precisely what has happened.
We also knew that higher rates would crush the housing market, and last month pending home sales dropped much more than expected…
March is with both feet in the spring selling season, when home sales jump and when prices move higher, and where everything looks rosy for a few months, no matter what, after the dreariness of winter.
So, well then, here we go again. Pending home sales – which are “a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings” – fell by 5.2% in March from February, according to the National Association of Realtors today, thereby annihilating the little-bitty gain in February that had sent all the headlines abuzz with hype.
If you are looking to sell a home, I would recommend doing it quickly, because prices are likely to go quite a bit lower from here.
Meanwhile, big companies are laying off workers all over the country at a very frightening rate. In fact, we just learned that Jenny Craig is getting ready to conduct “mass layoffs” as it prepares to wind down operations…
Jenny Craig has alerted employees to potential mass layoffs as it begins “winding down physical operations” and hunts for a buyer, according to communications the weight-loss company sent some staffers this week.
The company said it “has been going through a sales process for the last couple of months,” according to a document titled “Jenny Craig Company Transition FAQs” that was dated Tuesday and provided to NBC News.
I don’t know why, but I am sad to see Jenny Craig go. Perhaps it is because of all the Jenny Craig commercials that I watched when I was younger.
Joe Biden keeps telling us that the economy is doing great, but we just keep seeing one large company after another go belly up…
For 2009 there were 118 bankruptcies through April. In Covid-impacted 2020, there were 71 bankruptcies. In 2023 there have been 70.
This is the third worst start to the year since 2000.
This didn’t have to happen.
If our leaders had not flooded the system with money, inflation never would have gotten out of control.
And if inflation had never gotten out of control, officials at the Fed never would have had to recklessly hike interest rates.
Sadly, we have a real nightmare on our hands at this point, and there is no turning back now.
Not too long ago, a prankster that was impersonating Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was able to completely fool Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during a video chat.
During their discussion, Powell openly admitted that raising rates could push the U.S. economy into a recession…
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell earlier this year held a video chat about the global economy with someone he thought was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Except it wasn’t Zelensky. Powell appears to have been pranked.
In clips posted online of the January conversation, Powell discussed global politics and the economy. He said he supported the Ukrainian people but was limited in ways he could help. And Powell said a recession was likely coming in the not-too-distant future and divulged the Fed’s plans to raise rates in 2023.
Powell also admitted that more rate hikes are planned even though he knows that they will cause even more pain.
And actually the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates another 25 basis points later this week.
It is absolutely suicidal to keep raising rates as the economy plunges into a major downturn, but they are doing it anyway.
Have they gone completely mad?
It is almost as if they are purposely trying to create the sort of economic horror show that I have been relentlessly warning about.
If officials at the Fed had any sense, they would be reducing rates as soon as possible.
Unfortunately, that is simply not going to happen, and so we will soon see many more dominoes start tumbling over.
Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
Article cross-posted from The Economic Collapse Blog.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
