When there is fear in the air, banks start getting really tight with their money, and right now there is lots of fear in the air. A major credit contraction would be a nightmare scenario for the economy, and as you will see below, there is evidence that this is already starting to happen. Hopefully our leaders can find a way to calm things down, because we all remember what happened during the last financial crisis.
Banks decided to substantially tighten their lending standards and that really deepened the economic downturn. So our leaders should be doing what they can to support the stability of the system, but in so many cases they end up doing just the opposite.
For example, on Wednesday U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen publicly admitted that blanket coverage of all uninsured deposits in U.S. banks is not even under consideration…
In response to a direct question about whether the Treasury would circumvent Congress to insure all deposits, Yellen replied, “I have not considered or discussed anything having to do with blanket insurance or guarantees of all deposits.”
When she made this statement, she poured even more lighter fluid on small and mid-size banks all over the country.
Wealthy individuals and large companies have already been pulling billions of dollars out of such banks, and a lot more money will inevitably be pulled out in the days ahead.
Now that these banks are bleeding deposits at an unprecedented rate, what do you think their approach to lending will be?
Needless to say, they are going to be extremely averse to taking risks at this point.
And that means that lending standards are going to be getting a lot tighter.
In response to a tweet in which Joe Biden touted the accomplishments of his administration, Elon Musk warned that “the banks are melting”.
Umm … the banks are melting
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 23, 2023
Musk is quite correct.
Our banks are definitely in the process of melting, and hundreds of them could soon be in very serious jeopardy.
And just to make sure that hordes of banks will soon be teetering on the brink of disaster, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates once again this week.
As CNN’s Richard Quest has pointed out, our banks “are stuffed to the gills with these government bonds”, and every time rates go up those bonds become even less valuable…
Quest said, “Now, if inflation was your goal and your number one target, then you’d have gone 50 [basis points]. But, obviously, the overriding concern today is the banking sector. And remember, Zain, the problem with the banking sector is that all the banks are stuffed to the gills with these government bonds. Raise the interest rate, and the bond becomes less valuable. So, even today’s action at 0.25% makes things that little bit worse for the banks.”
Later, he added, “More banks are going to go out of business. More state and regional banks in the United States will need to be resolved — to use the technical phrase — they’ll be taken over, they’ll be wound up, they’ll be taken into ownership, all sorts of things.”
So is there evidence that all of this banking turmoil is starting to directly affect the behavior of U.S. consumers?
Well, it appears that credit card transactions are already starting to tumble quite dramatically…
As Citi’s Paul Lejuez writes in the latest “Citi’s Credit Card Insights” report (available to professional subs), the bank’s credit card data for the 16 sub-sectors it tracks show that total spending in March wk 3 (ended 3/18/23) decreased 10.3%, a big deceleration vs March wk 2 (-6.8%), and driven by a high-single digit decline in transactions. Ex-Food, spending decreased even more, tumbling by 13.0% vs -8.1% in March wk 2.
As Lejuez notes, “This was the first week of data following the disruption within the financial sector, and we were curious if it might have had an impact on the consumer. It sure did” and as Citi goes on to note, the third week of March, and the first week after America’s regional banks imploded, “was the biggest decline in total retail spending we have seen since the pandemic began (April 2020).”
As economic activity slows down, companies all over the nation will be forced to slash payrolls.
We have already been witnessing a tsunami of layoffs in recent months, and it appears that this tsunami is gathering even more momentum.
For example, Walmart has just announced that it will be giving the axe to hundreds of e-commerce fulfillment workers…
Hundreds of workers at five U.S. Walmart facilities that fulfill e-commerce orders are being asked to find jobs within 90 days at other company locations, a spokesperson confirmed to Reuters.
About 200 workers at Pedricktown, New Jersey, and hundreds of others at Fort Worth, Texas; Chino, California; Davenport, Florida; and Bethlehem, Pennsylvania were let go due to a reduction or elimination in evening and weekend shifts, the spokesperson said.
And Accenture just announced that it will be laying off a whopping 19,000 workers worldwide in the months ahead…
Professional services company Accenture plans to cut 19,000 jobs worldwide over the next 18 months in order to trim costs amid the tumultuous economic environment.
Most of the cuts will impact those working in the company’s non-billable corporate roles, Accenture said in a Thursday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Even Disney is being forced to slim down. In fact, we are being told that the coming wave of Disney layoffs in April will be a “bloodbath”…
With Disney’s April 3 shareholder meeting — a virtual affair this year — less than two weeks away, some clarity is emerging about the company’s plans to reduce staff and cut costs.
Insiders tell Deadline that multiple rounds of cuts are being prepared. The first one is being targeted for late March, likely next week, we hear. (March 30 or March 31 have been floated as possible dates, but that has not been confirmed.) According to sources, there will be a big wave in late April, described as “the big one” or a “bloodbath,” when a large portion of the cuts are expected to come.
Needless to say, this isn’t normal.
We haven’t seen anything like this since 2008, and every month this crisis just seems to escalate even more.
You know that things are bad when one of the largest employment websites in the entire world starts conducting mass layoffs…
Job search platform Indeed announced on Wednesday that it plans to lay off 2,200 employees, or roughly 15% of its staff.
Indeed CEO Chris Hyams said in a letter shared with employees that the cuts come from nearly every team at Indeed and Indeed Flex, noting that the decisions were carefully made with human resources, the legal department, and Diversity, Equity, Inclusion and Belonging teams.
As economic activity slows down, it is inevitable that many more Americans will suddenly lose their jobs.
Just hope that it doesn’t happen to you.
We have been anticipating that a major economic meltdown was coming, and now it is here.
Unfortunately, most Americans still assume that our leaders know exactly what they are doing, but the truth is that way too often they are taking actions that are making our problems even worse.
***It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***
About the Author: My name is Michael and my brand new book entitled “End Times” is now available on Amazon.com. In addition to my new book I have written six other books that are available on Amazon.com including “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”. (#CommissionsEarned) When you purchase any of these books you help to support the work that I am doing, and one way that you can really help is by sending copies as gifts to family and friends. Time is short, and I need help getting these warnings into the hands of as many people as possible.
I have published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream and The Most Important News, and the articles that I publish on those sites are republished on dozens of other prominent websites all over the globe. I always freely and happily allow others to republish my articles on their own websites, but I also ask that they include this “About the Author” section with each article. The material contained in this article is for general information purposes only, and readers should consult licensed professionals before making any legal, business, financial or health decisions.
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Article cross-posted from The Economic Collapse Blog.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
