(Just The News)—The Texas oil and gas industry is concerned about the uncertainty surrounding energy production and prices despite President Donald Trump’s vow to “drill, baby, drill.”
After Trump advanced his position on tariffs by engaging in trade wars with multiple countries, crude oil prices dropped by more than 20% below the $65-$70 per barrel threshold for operators in the Permian Basin to break even.
After the Trump administration announced a tariff exemption on certain items, the U.S. crude benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, slightly increased to $62.96 as of Wednesday. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, was at $65.85.
After the Trump administration pushed OPEC countries to increase output, eight OPEC+ countries agreed to phase out their voluntary output cuts and increase production by 411,000 barrels per day by May, prompting oil prices to drop again.
Goldman Sachs also reduced its December 2025 oil forecasts, putting WTI at $58 a barrel and Brent at $62 a barrel, projecting a “stagnating” economy as a result.
As the market and U.S. oil and natural gas industry reeled, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC on Tuesday that the industry has experienced ups and downs before.
“In 2015 and 2016, oil prices twice hit $28 [per barrel], and what happened? What did the U.S. shale industry do in that time? Innovate, get smarter, drive their costs down, and that’s what’s happening right now,” he said. “The industry continues to innovate, continues to get smarter and wiser. Of course, the U.S. shale industry is gonna survive and thrive, but of course investment decisions are going to be tailored if prices stay this low for a long period of time. But I’m quite bullish on the U.S. industry.”
Operators in Texas don’t agree.
Kirk Edwards, president of Odessa-based Latigo Petroleum, said, “The U.S. oil and gas industry is in shock – caught between two extremes.”
“The domestic oil and gas industry is reeling from the whiplash of back-to-back administrations with starkly different energy policies,” he said in an open letter to Wright and Interior Secretary Dough Burgum published on social media. After the Biden administration declared a war on fossil fuels, canceling leases and expanding regulatory hurdles, “in true form, the industry adapted,” he said. “Despite the headwinds, U.S. producers survived and in many cases, thrived, through ingenuity and grit.”
After Trump was reelected, “the initial mood in the industry was euphoric” because the industry believed the administration was “pro-energy,” he said. “But within the first few months, a different set of challenges emerged. Tariffs have driven up the cost of drilling, squeezing margins just as operators look to expand.”
The Trump administration pushing OPEC to increase production in an already oversupplied global market caused oil prices to plummet. “This sharp price decline has thrown U.S. producers into limbo,” he said. Trump’s motto, “Drill, baby, drill,” turned into “wait, baby, wait,” he said. As a result, the industry isn’t adding rigs to drill when “price signals are so unclear.”
“To say the industry is concerned would be an understatement, shock is a more accurate term. The stakes are high. If we lose talent, technology, and momentum now, we risk undermining years of progress towards true energy security. Hopefully, clearer heads will prevail within the Trump administration. A strong, stable domestic oil and gas sector isn’t just an economic asset, it’s a strategic necessity,” he said.
Trump’s position on tariffs is concerning the industry on many fronts, Ed Longanecker, president of the Texas Independent Producers & Royalty Owners Association (TIPRO), said. TIPRO represents nearly 3,000 individuals and companies from the Texas oil and gas industry.
“TIPRO and our members have long been concerned with tariffs on aluminum and steel that could add additional cost and slowdown exploration and production activity Texas,” Longanecker told The Center Square. “Our members procure this material from both domestic and international suppliers and maintaining the supply diversity is important to control costs and availability. Steel is also in the 8-10 percent range of operating costs for E&P companies, which can vary, and change based on numerous factors, including supply chain disruptions and policy decisions.”
He cited examples. “Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG) on critical items, production casing, come from top tier mills for some of our members, 50% domestic and 50% import and may fluctuate as much as 20% either way year to year depending on supply chain issues or other factors, such as the best product available for the environment the tubes will go into (who has the best product for the well conditions).
“OCTG on less critical strings, surface and intermediate casings, can be more import, sometimes 30% domestic and 70% import and much of that import being South Korea. U.S. steelmaking capacity for OCTG is being allocated mainly to producing the more critical and profitable items, such as production casing, and is the biggest reason for the necessity of more import for surface and intermediate pipes.”
As Longanecker and others have advocated for greater pipeline infrastructure to increase production and reduce emissions, the cost for line pipe and other products will also increase as well as “further downward pressure on crude oil prices,” he added. “Tariffs could also impact demand if it contributes to an economic downturn.”
The industry remains hopeful that the Trump administration will “work through these negotiations in an expedited manner with key trading partners,” he said.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
