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Years after my SHTF I am definitely better prepared and organized for anything similar in the future, but just like all things in prepping it is so easy to get again in the same false feeling of being “secure.”
Once it was, “Oh it can never happen here.” Now it can be, “I am much better prepared now, I am safe.”
We all sooner or later get ourselves in a situation where when we buy physical things for SHTF, we are actually buying the feeling of safety and peace of mind. I try to avoid that, but of course just like everybody else I often find myself there.
One of the questions that I get often goes like this: “What would you choose to have now for SHTF after going once through it?” And it is easy to answer it more or less.
But taking into consideration how most preppers prepare for SHTF I must say that while a lot of things would be easier, the same problems would be there even with having a lot of physical things stored for SHTF. Here are some examples.
Security and resources
Of course, I could have used more weapon at that time, and more ammo, especially at the beginning of everything when there was complete and absolute chaos everywhere. It was a time when you still do not know exactly who is dangerous and where you can go to be safe.
In that period of time, it is, as I mentioned before, it is best to stay put, and even better to have some resources and means to defend that resources. So yes, I could have used more of both at that time – better resources and better means to defend it.
But do not mistake that and think with a lot of resources and means to defend it you have completely solved your problems. Actually, you need to have a philosophy and strategy to be able to have that for a prolonged period of time. Which brings you again to the point where you will have to go out and “interact” with people on one or other way.
You can not interact (trade, negotiate, barter, fight…) if you do not have strategy and skills for that, a network of trusted people, great knowledge of your surroundings ( different groups of people, customs, criminal mindset, communication skills, fighting skills…)
So do not get me wrong here. I would love if I had more physical things at that time, it would have helped me a lot. But in the end, it would have turned out similar-interacting with other folks. It would be easier yes and it would take longer, but again it would come again to that interaction.
And do not think that interaction means sitting in an armchair and shooting at people who are attacking your home. It means a lot more than that.
Mobility
No matter how much physical things I would love to have had in that time, or that I wish to have for some future time, here is one other thing that preppers often forget. Mobility.
It is much more important to be mobile than to have a lot of physical things with you in your home. Now again, do not take this “mobility” too literally. It does not mean that you only need to have a backpack and weapon and head to the hills or wilderness when the SHTF.
Actually, it means a lot more than that. When SHTF, there are huge chances that you are gonna be forced to abandon your home, either because you are bugging out or you temporarily have to leave, or whatever. There is no sense of putting “all the money” in your home.
Develop a strategy where you can be highly mobile, but still have resources, either through survival caches, or a BOL. Have multiple plans where you gonna go in case of some serious event. Have multiple planned ways to there, have a network of people who might help you on the way there (and vice versa).
In the best-case scenario yes, you may stay at your home. But most probably you are not gonna be able to stay there all the time. So no matter how much physical things you have – do not count on the belief that it will be possible to keep it with you in your home. Be ready to be mobile, not to blindly run away. Have a strategy ready for that.
(Looking for more advice on crafting a proper strategy for emergency evacuations? Check out our free QUICKSTART Guide.)
Recognizing signs of the coming SHTF
Let’s be honest here. No matter where you live today, you can probably say that things are going to s..t. Does that mean that you (or I) will blindly go to survival mode? No, actually. We will try to enjoy our life as much is possible, otherwise what is the point?
Yeah, there are chances that we gonna recognize the arrival of the SHTF and that we will act accordingly. But chances are bigger that we will be caught in the middle of it by surprise. And then?
The whole point of survival is to act properly in a given situation. You are still gonna be ahead of the majority of folks around you. So while the majority of people are panicking you will act according to the situation. And that is good enough.
For me, there is not too much sense in living in fear of possible collapse. Enjoy your life while things are more or less okay.
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Concluding thoughts on strategy and mobility
As a form of conclusion here, there is the thought that no matter how much physical stuff you have ready for SHTF, it will not save you from all the hard work when it happens.
It will make things easier for you, and that is great because every help is gonna be appreciated, but you still gonna need to have strategies for interacting with the people around you once when SHTF. In my book, Dark Secrets of Survival, I shared some stories about those interactions. (Available in PDF or paperback.)
It is much better to develop those strategies before SHTF, while you have time and choices.
Once the SHTF is happening, the events unfold around you at a different speed. Or we may say “frequency” so it is hard to “tune in” to all that and stay safe.
Here is only one example – trade. It is such a huge topic on all survival forum everywhere, with people fantasizing about trade when SHTF. But point of it is to be ready for trade before SHTF, and it can be to have strategy about: what is gonna be needed in your region, what is easier to sell (to carry, trade), what kind of groups of people living around you, what they prefer, what kind of organisation will emerge and own black market and what that means for you, where are possible trade places…I wrote more about that here.
There is a lot that you can think about today, before the SHTF.
What are your thoughts?
Does Selco’s advice make you rethink your current strategies? Had you considered these things previously? How can you become more flexible in your preparedness?
Join the discussion at our Late Prepper Substack.
About Selco:
Selco survived the Balkan war of the 90s in a city under siege, without electricity, running water, or food distribution. He is currently accepting students for his next physical course here.
In his online works, he gives an inside view of the reality of survival under the harshest conditions. He reviews what works and what doesn’t, tells you the hard lessons he learned, and shares how he prepares today.
He never stopped learning about survival and preparedness since the war. Regardless of what happens, chances are you will never experience extreme situations as Selco did. But you have the chance to learn from him and how he faced death for months.
- Read more of Selco’s articles here.
- Buy his PDF books here.
- Buy his #1 New Release paperback, The Dark Secrets of Survival here.
- Take advantage of a deep and profound insight into his knowledge by signing up for his online course SHTF Survival Boot Camp.
- Learn the inside story of what it was really like when the SHTF with his online course One Year in Hell.
Real survival is not romantic or idealistic. It is brutal, hard and unfair. Let Selco take you into that world.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
