- Nvidia posted huge fourth quarter results on Tuesday, up 265% from one year prior, launching the largest one-day single-stock rally the market has ever seen.
- Investors are flocking to Nvidia, believing that the company has the potential to ride a new wave of technological innovation that could increase productivity across the economy through faster computers and artificial intelligence.
- “Nvidia has already made strides in increased efficiency, which is a tremendous advantage in this regard due to the sheer volume of calculations that must be performed to make a technology like AI possible,” E.J. Antoni, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “Being on the cutting edge of chip technology puts a firm in a position to truly command the market.”
(DCNF)—American technology company Nvidia has shot up in value over the last several years following speculation about the potential economic impact of new computing technology that some investors believe could increase productivity substantially.
Nvidia posted huge year-end quarterly profits Tuesday evening, up 265% from a year prior as the company continues to grow at breakneck speeds, according to the company’s fourth quarter results. The fourth quarter gain beat expectations and led to a $277 billion stock rally on Wednesday, up 16.3% in just the day, making it the largest single-day increase in the New York Stock Exchange’s history, according to Reuters.
Investor hype around Nvidia is due to its stake in the semiconductor market, where it commands a vast majority of market share in artificial intelligence (AI) related technologies, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation. Many investors predict that AI and greater computing efficiency will be a boon to businesses, which could greatly increase productivity using the technology for a wide array of applications.
“Nvidia has already made strides in increased efficiency, which is a tremendous advantage in this regard due to the sheer volume of calculations that must be performed to make a technology like AI possible,” E.J. Antoni, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget, told the DCNF. “With the ability to position data centers virtually anywhere, size is not really a major issue anymore for chips, but efficiency is due to increased energy prices and environmental regulations. Being on the cutting edge of chip technology puts a firm in a position to truly command the market.”
Nvidia was first founded in 1993, introducing products related to 3D graphics, particularly for gaming and multimedia creation, and later invented the graphics processing unit in 1999, taking a big step for computing power, according to the company’s website. The company also claims to have sparked the era of modern AI in 2012, way ahead of trends around the technology, giving it a commanding lead on other technology companies that are now looking to catch up and expand into AI.
“Nvidia controls most (about four-fifths) of the chip market for AI-related technologies,” Antoni told the DCNF. “The explosion of demand around AI has boosted chip demand too, leading to growth forecasts for Nvidia that were completely off the table just a couple years ago. Like all stock prices, no one can say for sure if Nvidia’s current popularity is warranted because stock prices are speculation on future earnings, and the future is by definition uncertain. This is particularly true for AI, where so much of the potential is unknown.”
Nvidia’s stock price has exploded over the past few years, measuring less than $40 a share at the start of 2019, peaking at over $310 a share in November 2021, before sliding to around $127 a share in October 2022, ultimately climbing all the way to around $800 a share in February 2024, according to MarketWatch.
Nvidia breaks stock market record with a $247 billion one-day market cap surge, as reported by Bloomberg.
Renowned for AI & fast computing, #Nvidia hits a major financial milestone with its staggering revenue.
Stock up nearly 280% in the past year!#AI #Crypto #Stocks pic.twitter.com/Qv9aQ3LP14
— Christiaan (@ChristiaanDefi) February 23, 2024
“The fact that the demand for these products is growing indicates to me that our society, these companies, educational organizations, all the different users of AI believe that there is great value here that can improve our lives,” David Inserra, a fellow for free expression and technology at the Cato Institute, told the DCNF. “I can’t predict that it will certainly be that way. But every indicator that we have indicates that the market is saying there’s great value here. I think that we’d be foolish to ignore that important market indicator.”
Generative AI powered by the type of technology Nvidia is leading the way on is already finding several applications in business despite being in its infancy, including in customer service, cybersecurity, personal assistants, inventory management, accounting and more, according to Forbes. The U.S. is also looking to use semiconductor technology and AI in military applications and is trying to prevent China’s access to the equipment to maintain a technological and militaristic edge.
American companies controlled around 48% of the market share in the semiconductor market in 2022, compared to 7% in China, according to Statista. South Korea controlled the second-largest market share with 19%, followed by Japan and the European Union at 9%.
The Biden administration has placed a number of restrictions on the semiconductor industry to ensure continued American supremacy, including putting sanctions on several Chinese chip manufacturers in October 2022 to prevent them from working with American firms. Congress has also approved $39 billion in direct funding for chip manufacturers as part of the August 2022 Chip and Science Act.
The rollout of the funds has so far failed to bring a substantial number of chip manufacturing plants into operation, with several companies pushing back new plant completion dates to 2025 or later due to volatility in chip prices and government funding uncertainty.
The growth of generative AI powered by new chips has also led to concerns that the technology is being given a liberal skew, such as Google’s AI chatbot Gemini taking a nuanced position on the terrorist organization Hamas’ stance on the violent eradication of Israel and whether China is committing genocide against the Uyghur people.
Nvidia is part of what has been dubbed the Magnificent Seven Stocks, which are stocks that have delivered a large portion of stock growth in the past few years, according to Yahoo Finance. Tesla, an electric vehicle (EV) company, has had a similar meteoric rise starting slightly earlier but has since remained relatively stagnant in 2024 as other competitors in the EV field emerge, raising concerns that Nvidia might not live up to expectations.
“This is always the market dynamic, right? If someone comes along and delivers a more desirable product, well then yeah, sure,” Inserra told the DCNF about the potential for Nvidia to lose its current investor hype. “Right now we’re talking a lot about AI, but what if a new kind of AI, a better type or even more advanced, better type of technology emerges and uses different kinds of computing power? We don’t know what the future of innovation could bring. So to that extent, yeah, it’s possible that Nvidia isn’t going to be the golden child of this forever, but from what I’ve read, it seems like they have been forward-leaning and looking for ways to move into new spaces in the use of their processors for AI, and so right now they have that leg up.”
Nvidia declined to comment to the DCNF.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
