There’s an argument that we overcomplicate and overanalyze presidential elections. Put simply, sometimes elections boil down to one simple question: is the country on the right track or not?
If the answer is yes, the incumbent party will likely be victorious. If the answer is no, the challenger should be the favorite.
CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten, one of the few credible voices still at the network, is a believer in that philosophy. So is history.
See, just 28 percent of Americans say “the country is on the right track.” No incumbent party has ever won the election with confidence that low.
“If we look at whether voters believe we’re on the right track or the wrong track, I think that this sort of gets at a problem for Kamala Harris’s campaign. Just 28 percent of Americans think the U.S. is on the right track,” said Enten. […]
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