(The Epoch Times)—It’s been a rocky year for the restaurant industry, with rising costs due to inflation and changing consumer habits driving a slew of chains with household names into Chapter 11 bankruptcy. According to those who follow the industry, there is no definable silver lining ahead for an industry in deep trouble.
“Most restaurants lose money, and there’s a reason for that. It’s a hard business with low margins and trends that are hard to navigate,” Jonathan Carson, the co-CEO of market strategy company Stretto, told The Epoch Times.
“When you add higher prices and a continually and increasingly overburdened consumer balance sheet, I think it makes the industry prime for restructuring,” he said.
Carson, who handles business reorganizations, said his company is aware of at least 17 national restaurant chains that have filed for bankruptcy in 2024.
Among the higher profile restaurant casualties this year which have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection this year are Roti, Buca di Beppo, Tijuana Flats, Sticky’s finger Joint, and Red Lobster.
Consumer Habits Have Changed
Laura Adams, a money expert and award-winning author who also hosts the weekly Money Girl podcast, told The Epoch Times that changes in consumer habits such as cooking at home and ordering home delivery have especially plagued the fast-casual tier of the restaurant industry.
“Consumers who dine at lower-end restaurants are the ones who will stop dining out first, and they’ll be the last ones to return because of unaffordability,” she said. “I think people have become used to ordering out, eating casually at home, and wearing casual clothes while watching Netflix.”
One of the changes in the restaurant industry that exploded during the pandemic was home-delivery services like Uber Eats, Grubhub, and DoorDash. The delivery companies, though, take large commissions from restaurants already struggling to make a profit.
Doordash orders can take as much as a 30 percent commission from restaurants.
“Doordash is a double-edged sword. It gives you the opportunity to get more food to more people, but it takes a pretty sizeable chunk off the bottom line,” said Justin Winslow, president and CEO of the Michigan Restaurant and Lodging Association.
“In third-party delivery, you have a real prisoner’s dilemma. You either shun the opportunity and limit your top-line gross sales, or you accept it and realize your ability to profit from those customers is harder than those inside your restaurant,” he told The Epoch Times.
Doordash is now the top restaurant-delivery app in the United States. At the end of 2023, DoorDash had 550,000 partner restaurants and grocery stores using its platform. However, the company is still looking for its first quarter of profitability.
In a written response to The Epoch Times, DoorDash’s corporate communications group wrote: “Our mission at DoorDash is to grow and empower local economies, and we’ve built tools that help restaurants expand their business and reach more people in their community.”
A Variety of Issues
Adams said that to survive, restaurants must offer something unique to make consumers leave their homes to experience it.
“I think if companies can’t differentiate themselves, they’re going to have a hard time. Maybe a restaurant like Red Lobster gets transformed, but it’s sad to see such a well-known brand wither away. When you see folks cutting back on dining out, you need to offer something unique,” she said.
The reason behind many Chapter 11 restaurant-restructuring filings this year needs to be discussed more, according to Carson, who has more than 20 years of bankruptcy experience.
He believes many of the filings have much to do with getting out of rent agreements. “You can walk away from a lease with Chapter 11 bankruptcies. The company can take the liability off their PNL [profit and loss],” he said. “But you do still have some casualties along the way.”
As tough as the restaurant economic and consumer market is today, Winslow says the restaurants in his organization are still reeling from the response to the pandemic that ended two years ago.
“The long tail of COVID is still impacting this industry more than any others. We did a poll in June, and I wasn’t prepared for how severe the fallout has been, with 60 of our members losing foot traffic in the last year and only 25 seeing an increase in top-line sales,” Winslow said.
“Forty of them are currently not profitable, and two out of every five of our restaurants are at risk for closure in the near future.”
Asked if she would advise anyone to open a restaurant today in this economic environment, Adams said, “I would say it is one of the most difficult businesses you can choose to run, and I would make sure you have the expertise and a record of success before you do it.”
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
