The Biden regime won’t admit it and neither will most Democrats because it would only add to their reputation of being unable to run a successful economy, but it’s pretty much official now: Inflation is out of control despite the fact that the Federal Reserve has been hiking rates to reverse price spikes.
Thanks to Democrat over-spending during the pandemic when the supply chain was busted and goods were in short supply, prices skyrocketed to reflect the lack of availability, and they’ve not come down very much at all.
Worse, other monetary assets are now being negatively affected as well.
“We saw a big selloff in the gold market last week and the price dropped below $2,000 an ounce. The catalyst for that selloff was tough talk from several Federal Reserve officials and an increasing expectation that the central bank will raise rates again in June,” SchiffGold.com noted this week.
“As Peter Schiff explained in his podcast, everybody thinks the Fed is going to win the inflation fight because it is going to be even tougher. In reality, they are talking tougher because they are losing the fight,” the site noted further.
In a statement on Thursday, Lorie Logan, the President of the Dallas Fed, expressed her concerns about “much too high” inflation, stating that it is not slowing down quickly enough to enable the Federal Reserve to consider pausing its campaign of interest rate hikes in June.
“The data in coming weeks could yet show that it is appropriate to skip a meeting. As of today, though, we aren’t there yet,” Logan said.
Despite the stock market’s indifference to the Federal Reserve’s more stringent stance, there were notable reactions in other financial markets. The dollar gained strength, gold prices declined, and there was a sell-off in the short-term bond market. If the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) proceeds with a rate hike next month, it would result in the Fed funds rate reaching a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. Schiff highlighted that this would surpass the peak rate observed during the previous cycle in June 2006.
“We will be above the interest rate level that precipitated the 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession. Except the difference is today that we have so much more debt than we did back then. Everybody has a lot more debt — the government, corporations, individuals. So, that level of interest will do far more damage today than it did in 2007. And we know how much damage it did then because we had the financial crisis of 2008. So, the financial crisis that has already begun in 2023 is going to be much worse than the one that we had in 2008,” Schiff said during his podcast.
For the first time ever, household debt in the U.S. has surpassed $17 trillion. Typically, credit card balances fall during the first quarter of the year, but this year they were flat.
“Americans are using their credit cards as a lifeline. That’s how they’re dealing with higher prices. They’re charging stuff,” Schiff said.
During March, revolving credit, which encompasses credit card debt, experienced a significant annual increase of 17.3%. Simultaneously, interest rates on credit card debt soared above 20%. Schiff suggested that these trends demonstrate the Federal Reserve’s lack of progress in addressing inflation.
“The consumer keeps spending. Where are they getting the money? They’re borrowing it. Credit continues to expand. That’s part of the inflationary dynamic. Inflation is an expansion of the money supply, which includes credit. So, consumers are not cutting back on their spending because of higher prices. They’re not even cutting back on their spending because of higher interest rates. They just keep on spending,” Schiff said.
“So, prices are going to keep on rising, and this next quarter-point rate hike isn’t going to be any more effective than the previous rate hikes, which means they’re going to have to do it again,” he added.
Get ready for a massive debt bomb to explode soon, in other words.
Sources include:
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
Raising the prime rate will be a knockout round to the domino regional banks which are under water from low interest, long term treasury bond portfolios and depositors placing their money into short term treasuries.
It will likely make matters worse in the short run, and promote bank runs and push even more bank consolidation.
Attention republicrat uniparty public actors! If weeds were used as currency; how valuable would it become if it were allowed to grow out of control in a yard? Cut the weeds, and clean up the yard. (Stop printing and spending us into oblivion debt. simple) And quit pretending you don’t know the answer because it doesn’t fool anyone but the dimmest bulb in downtown eliteburg. No wonder 89% of the American people have no respect for you.