(The Economic Collapse Blog)—What in the world is going to happen if global food supplies continue to get even tighter? During the second half of this year global food prices have been surging. A “perfect storm” of factors is suppressing production all over the planet, and meanwhile worldwide demand for food just keeps rising. Needless to say, higher prices hurt those at the bottom of the economic food chain the worst. Food prices have become a major issue in country after country, and if current trends continue it won’t be too long before widespread unrest breaks out.
Here in the United States, the cost of living is absolutely eviscerating the middle class. If a way cannot be found to stabilize food prices, we will be seeing a tremendous amount of anger and frustration in 2025 and beyond.
Last week, it was being reported that global food prices had risen to “the highest level in 19 months”…
The world food price index, compiled by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to track the most globally traded food commodities, increased to 127.5 points last month from a revised 126.9 points in October, the highest level in 19 months and up 5.7% from a year ago.
The vegetable oil index jumped 7.5% above levels seen a month ago and 32% above those seen a year earlier, driven by concerns over lower-than-expected palm oil output due to excessive rainfall in Southeast Asia.
Clearly, things are not heading in the right direction. But what could be coming next is potentially even more alarming.
Insane global weather patterns are having a dramatic impact on the production of some of our most important staples, and as a result prices are rapidly trending higher. For example, the price of Arabica beans has risen over 80 percent so far in 2024…
Coffee drinkers may soon see their morning treat get more expensive, as the price of coffee on international commodity markets has hit its highest level on record.
On Tuesday, the price for Arabica beans, which account for most global production, topped $3.44 a pound (0.45kg), having jumped more than 80% this year. The cost of Robusta beans, meanwhile, hit a fresh high in September.
It comes as coffee traders expect crops to shrink after the world’s two largest producers, Brazil and Vietnam, were hit by bad weather and the drink’s popularity continues to grow.
If you love coffee, you are already feeling quite bit of pain.
Unfortunately, it appears that coffee prices could become even more painful in 2025.
A similar thing is happening to another very popular morning beverage.
The price of orange juice is up 327 percent over the last 3 years, and thanks to Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton it is expected to go even higher in 2025…
As consumers struggle with higher prices for groceries, one staple of the American breakfast is about to get a lot more expensive. Plagued by diseased groves, uprooted trees to make room for housing developments, and severe weather that has decimated crops, the price of orange juice has skyrocketed in the past 3 years by 327% and is expected to climb even higher in the wake of Hurricanes Helene and Milton which swept through Florida less than three weeks apart.
According to industry data, Hurricane Milton destroyed over 3 million boxes of oranges in Florida, setting the state up for the smallest orange harvest in close to 100 years. Coupled with a protracted drought in Brazil, the world’s largest orange exporter, the price for frozen concentrated orange juice trading on the Intercontinental Commodity Exchange (“ICE”) has soared 80% to a record high of $5.25 per pound.
Many Americans like to have eggs with their orange juice in the morning, but the bird flu is sending egg prices into the stratosphere.
In some areas of California, a dozen eggs will now cost you more than 4 dollars…
Economists said the bird flu is continuing to impact the supply chain, with California becoming the epicenter of the virus and the fallout.
Gillian Thorp went to her local Trader Joe’s in Santa Clara in search for a dozen eggs that now costs her $4, assuming she could find some in the first place.
“I stopped by the egg section and there were only two choices,” Thorp said. “It was pretty empty. I usually only purchase organic eggs and there was only one choice for that.”
The bird flu isn’t going anywhere.
In fact, a fresh wave is sweeping across the United States right now.
So if you love eggs, that is really bad news.
Meanwhile, the size of the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to the lowest level since 1961…
America’s beef cow inventory has steadily declined over the last half-decade, reaching 64-year lows and signaling a deepening crisis across the cattle industry. As the cattle crisis worsens, consumers should brace for higher ground beef prices.
The shrinking beef supply has pushed the nation’s herd size to its smallest level since 1961. With severe droughts, high interest rates, costly feed prices, sliding farm income, surging farm debt, and a shifting consumer preference toward cheaper chicken, struggling ranchers have been culling heifers, preventing any meaningful recovery in the number of calves necessary to expand the nation’s herds.
There were 183 million people living in the United States in 1961.
Today, our population is nearly double that figure.
So we have the same amount of beef that we did in 1961 to feed almost twice as many people.
If you were wondering why beef prices had gotten so high, now you know.
Instead of eating a steady diet of high quality food, we are being fed an endless stream of heavily-processed packaged foods that are loaded with extremely unhealthy filler ingredients such as high fructose corn syrup.
Sadly, many Americans are in such financial distress that the heavily-processed packaged foods are all that they can afford.
Of course even the heavily-processed packaged foods are quite a bit more expensive than they once were.
We have definitely entered very dangerous territory, and I fully expect the trends that have been pushing up food prices to accelerate even more in 2025.
Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
Olive oil has also gone to the roof. $30 dollar a bottle now.
Other meats that are clean and edible incl. goat meat and horse meat, most can be sold as ground meats and be available and priced for lower and middle -low income households. More people are buying pork, chicken and ground turkey from what the store manager said. Beef is pricey, even lean ground. In the E.U. there is a government war against meats claiming it causes green house gas and pollution. Farmers are protesting. Horse meat was sold in some western states at one time, now in Mexico. We don’t buy junk/snack foods (cooklies,chips, etc) but snack on yogurt or nuts since they are filling. It makes no sense to buy sodas and junk food with groceries being so high.