(The Economic Collapse Blog)—How many times have you heard the mainstream media tell you that the economy is doing just great in recent months? Personally, I have seen the word “booming” used over and over again to describe the economy, and it makes me sick. The level of gaslighting that we are witnessing right now is off the charts. Millions of Americans are sleeping in their vehicles, thousands of businesses are failing all over the nation, and most of the country now believes that the American Dream is no longer attainable. If this is what a “booming” economy feels like, I would hate to see what would happen during a “recession”.
I totally understand why the mainstream media is gaslighting us. They want us to believe that everything is fine so that we will vote a certain way in November. They have an agenda, and they are pushing it really hard.
But what they are telling us simply does not match up with reality.
The following are 7 signs that the mainstream media is flat out lying to us about the economy…
#1 Survey after survey has shown that the economy is the number one concern for American voters during this election season. If the economy was in good shape, we would not be getting results like this…
The economy was still the top issue for 26 percent of voters, per the poll. Threats to democracy and extremism came in second at 22 percent, and immigration was third at 13 percent.
#2 At this point, the economy is in such rough shape that even Dollar General customers seem to be running out of money…
Dollar General shares tumbled Thursday after the discount retailer slashed its sales and profit guidance for the full year, suggesting its lower-income customers are struggling in this economy.
Shares of the retailer, which caters to more rural areas, tumbled 25% after the earnings report.
#3 When the U.S. economy was actually booming, Big Lots was thriving. Sadly, today’s economic environment has been very hard on the retail chain and it is now teetering on the brink of bankruptcy…
Discount home goods retailer Big Lots is reportedly on the brink of bankruptcy after years of falling sales.
The beleaguered chain may seek Chapter 11 protection within weeks, according to Bloomberg, if it is not able to find investors.
The Ohio-based company runs around 1,400 stores across the US, after closing hundreds of locations earlier this year.
#4 Needless to say, Big Lots is far from alone, because the number of businesses that are filing for bankruptcy has reached dizzying heights…
According to statistics released by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, annual bankruptcy filings totaled 486,613 in the year ending June 2024, compared with 418,724 cases in the previous year.
Business filings rose 40.3 percent, from 15,724 to 22,060 in the year ending June 30, 2024. Non-business bankruptcy filings rose 15.3 percent to 464,553, compared with 403,000 in the previous year.
#5 According to Zero Hedge, several regional Fed business surveys just fell even deeper into contraction territory…
‘Four more years’ is not the message being heard from the regional Fed surveys this week as the Philly, Dallas, and Richmond business surveys all slumped deeper into contraction…
#6 As I discussed yesterday, approximately two-thirds of the entire U.S. population no longer believes that the American Dream “is still alive”…
Only about a third of U.S. adults believe the American dream is still alive, a Wall Street Journal/NORC poll published Wednesday found.
A survey of 2,501 people conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute twelve years ago found more than half of respondents believed the American dream “still holds true,” but now only a third feel that way, according to a recent WSJ/NORC poll of 1,502 adults. The study also found an increasingly large gap between people’s economic goals and what they think is actually attainable — a trend that was consistent across gender and party lines, but was especially common amongst younger generations.
#7 Last, but certainly not least, total household debt in the United States has soared to a level that we have never seen before…
A quarterly report published this month by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on household credit and debt found that between the first quarter of 2021 and the second quarter of 2024, credit card debt surged 48.1% while household debt — which includes mortgages and auto loans — rose by 21.6%.
In dollar terms, credit card debt rose from $770 billion in early 2021 to $1.14 trillion in the most recent quarter, while household debt increased from $14.64 trillion to $17.8 trillion in the same period.
Yes, there is a small segment of society that is still doing really well.
Thanks to the unprecedented intervention that we have seen in the financial markets in recent years, they are still able to live the high life while most of the country suffers.
But while stock prices continue to set new all-time highs, much of the nation looks like a horror show.
For example, just consider what has happened to Pine Bluff, Arkansas…
A small Arkansas city suffering from severe population decline and economic turmoil has become so abandoned that properties are on offer for as little as $400.
Pine Bluff, a bleak metro that saw its population drop from 49,000 to 41,250 residents from 2010 to 2020, made headlines this month after being panned in a YouTube documentary from Abandoned Atlas.
In the movie, filmmaker Michael Schwartz said witnessing the city’s decay ‘shocked’ him, saying: ‘It seems like every time I turn a corner, there is another abandoned home or building left behind.’
The gap between the ultra-wealthy and the rest of us has never been larger than it is right now.
The next time you walk past an abandoned store that has been boarded up, just remember how much the mainstream media has been lying to you.
The next time you walk past someone that is sleeping in a vehicle, just remember how much the mainstream media has been lying to you.
The next time you walk past someone that is hooked on drugs because they have lost all hope, just remember how much the mainstream media has been lying to you.
Our communities are falling apart right in front of our eyes, our economy is falling apart right in front of our eyes, and our entire society is falling apart right in front of our eyes.
So don’t let the mainstream media fool you. The economy really is moving in the wrong direction very rapidly, and it won’t be too long before even they are forced to admit the truth.
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
