(Zero Hedge)—Europe will not be included in peace talks for Ukraine, President Donald Trump’s Ukraine envoy said on Feb. 15 after sending a questionnaire to European capitals asking what they could offer in security guarantees for Kyiv.
As The Epoch Times’ Jacob Burg reports, on Sunday, France said it will host a summit of European leaders on Monday to discuss the Russia–Ukraine war and European security after retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, didn’t include Europe in negotiations over Ukraine’s future following years of war with Russia.
France President Emmanuel Macron “will convene the main European countries to discuss European security,” Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot told France Inter radio. Barrot described the meeting as a working session and emphasized it should not be “overdramatized.”
The office of the French presidency has not yet announced the meeting.
Macron has invited at least Britain, Germany, Poland, Italy, and Denmark, representing the Baltic and Scandinavian countries, the European Union leadership, and the NATO secretary general, according to six European diplomats. They said the purpose of the meeting is to discuss what immediate help can be given to Ukraine and the role Europe can play in providing both security guarantees to Kyiv and Europe at large.
Trump called Russian President Vladimir Putin last week before consulting European or Ukrainian leaders, saying peace talks had begun.
The Trump administration is pushing European allies in NATO to take a primary role in security guarantees for the region as the United States prioritizes border security and counters Chinese political and military influence.
At a global security conference in Munich, Kellogg said the United States would act as an intermediary in talks between Ukraine and Russia.
“I’m [from] a school of realism,” Kellogg said, regarding Europe having a seat at the table during negotiations.
“I think that’s not going to happen.”
In trying to reassure Europeans, Kellogg said it doesn’t mean “their interests are not considered, used, or developed.”
Some European leaders pushed back on being sidelined for talks.
“There’s no way in which we can have discussions or negotiations about Ukraine, Ukraine’s future or European security structure, without Europeans,” Finland’s President Alexander Stubb told reporters in Munich.
“But this means that Europe needs to get its act together. Europe needs to talk less and do more.”
The questionnaire Kellogg sent to Europeans “will force Europeans to think,” Stubb said.
Kaja Kallas, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, was more explicit stating that “if somebody agrees something and I mean, everybody else says ‘okay fine!’ you have agreed, but we will not follow this!”
She added that EU’s position is “our importance” trumps any peace!
🇪🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🚨‼️ THE EU OPENLY SAYS THEY WILL SABOTAGE PEACE IN UKRAINE IF THEY’RE NOT AT THE TABLE.
Kallas: “if somebody agrees something and I mean, everybody else says ‘okay fine!’ you have agreed,but we will not follow this!”
-> EU’s position is “our importance” trumps any peace! pic.twitter.com/CMsYIpi6Q6
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) February 16, 2025
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte urged Europeans to get involved.
“And to my European friends, I would say, get into the debate, not by complaining that you might, yes or no, be at the table, but by coming up with concrete proposals, ideas, ramp up [defense] spending,” he said.
Kellogg said that territorial concessions from Russia and targeting its oil revenues could be included in the talks over ending the war between it and Ukraine.
“Russia is really a petro-state,” he said, adding that the West needs to do more in adequately enforcing sanctions against Russia.
U.S. and Russian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia in the coming days for continued peace talks, according to Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas). After meeting with Vice President JD Vance in Germany on Feb. 14, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his nation was not invited to the talks in Saudi Arabia and that Kyiv would consult with strategic partners before engaging with Russia.
“This is the war in Ukraine against us, and it is our human losses,” President Zelensky told Meet The Press this morning.
“We are thankful for all the support, unity in the USA around Ukraine support, bipartisan unity, bipartisan support,” adding that “we are thankful for all of this, but there is no leader in the world who can really make a deal with Putin without us, about us.”
🚨🇺🇦 ZELENSKY: I WOULD NEVER ACCEPT ANY DECISIONS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND RUSSIA ABOUT UKRAINE
“This is the war in Ukraine against us, and it is our human losses.
We are thankful for all the support, unity in the USA around Ukraine support, bipartisan unity, bipartisan support.… pic.twitter.com/a8F2MaLl3J
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) February 16, 2025
“I will never accept any decisions between the United States and Russia about Ukraine. Never,” he exclaimed.
Trump told Zelensky that he believes Putin is serious about peace talks. So Zelensky’s strategy to undermine those talks is tell Trump that Putin is not serious and is really just “afraid” of Trump.
You can tell by this desperate reverse psychology, and his body language, that… https://t.co/jpCPlIzB0U
— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) February 16, 2025
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and White House Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to Saudi Arabia, McCaul said.
The talks are meant to arrange a meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky to “finally bring peace and end this conflict,” he said.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
