Here are the key takeaways from the Breitbart Business Digest article debunking claims that Americans bear 96% of tariff costs:
- A German Kiel Institute study claims foreign exporters absorb only 4% of tariffs while Americans pay 96%, calling it an “own goal” for the U.S., but the analysis is based on flawed and noisy data.
- The study’s key statistic—a pass-through coefficient of -0.039—has a high standard error (0.024) and is only marginally significant at the 10% level, meaning foreign absorption could realistically range from 0% to 9%.
- Import volumes dropped sharply (28-33%) under tariffs, leading to shifts in product composition where cheaper suppliers exit the market, artificially inflating average unit values without proving broad price hikes to consumers.
- Measurement errors arise from mismatched tariff codes (HS6 vs. more detailed HS8/HS10 levels), biasing results toward showing little foreign exporter absorption.
- Trade diversion to non-tariffed countries (like Vietnam) distorts comparisons and understates how much exporters in targeted countries actually lower prices to stay competitive.
- The study provides no direct evidence on retail prices, profit margins, or supply chain pass-through, so claims that tariffs act as a “consumption tax” on Americans remain unsubstantiated.
- U.S. importers pay tariffs directly to the government, generating revenue that reduces the budget deficit—tariffs aren’t just a cost but a tool that brings in funds.
- Tariffs can address pre-existing market distortions, such as foreign subsidies, aligning with the “theory of the second best” where they may improve efficiency rather than create pure deadweight loss.
Read the full story: https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2026/01/20/breitbart-business-digest-debunking-the-myth-that-americans-are-paying-96-of-tariffs/
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