(DCNF)—CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said on Wednesday that young voters who are largely backing Vice President Kamala Harris may not actually turn up to the polls.
Harris is leading Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by 17 points among likely voters ranging from 18 to 29 years of age and holds a 12-point lead among voters ages 18 to 34, according to a CNN/SSRS poll released Wednesday. Enten warned that slightly less than half of the young demographic is “extremely motivated” to vote, indicating a significant percentage may not turn up to the polls on Election Day.
“We’ve got Kamala Harris up by 12 points, now if we thin ourselves down a little bit, let’s go under the age of 30, what do we have? We have an even larger lead for Kamala Harris, she’s up by 17 points … But, of course, are these voters actually going to turn out and vote? Extremely motivated to vote in the 2024 election, look at this, overall voters [is at] 64%. For voters under the age of 40, it’s just 49%. I think the key question isn’t just who they’re going to vote for, it’s whether they’ll turn out and vote. Oftentimes, younger voters are less likely to turn out and vote, and I think this year is going to be quite similar to that,” Enten said.
Enten further pointed out that Harris leads the former president among young voters by an average of 18 points in national polls, a 10-point decrease from Biden’s 28-point lead among this demographic in September 2020.
Enten pointed to results from a New York Times/Siena College poll that found a massive gender divide among young voters in the race between Harris and Trump in six key battleground states, with the former president holding a 10-point lead among male voters and Harris leading by 38 points with women voters.
Trump is currently leading Harris in the battleground Sunbelt states of Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll from Monday. Harris holds a 2-point lead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Trump underperformed in swing state polling in the 2016 and 2020 elections, indicating he will possibly perform better in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan than the polls suggest.
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