(The Economic Collapse Blog)—U.S. lawmakers are calling for military strikes inside Iran in the aftermath of a horrific terror attack that left three U.S. service members dead and dozens wounded. So if the U.S. does hit targets inside Iranian territory, how will the Iranians respond?
It is theoretically possible that they could back down, but I doubt it. All of the airstrikes that we have conducted so far against Iranian-backed terror groups in Iraq and Syria have not caused them to back down. And the airstrikes that we have hit the Houthis in Yemen with have not caused them to back down either. The truth is that the U.S. is already at war in the Middle East, and it appears that it could soon take an apocalyptic turn.
U.S. forces in the Middle East have been attacked time after time over the past couple of months, but Sunday’s attack was the first one that actually killed members of the U.S. military…
Three U.S. service members were killed and dozens may be wounded after an unmanned aerial drone attack on U.S. forces stationed in northeastern Jordan near the Syrian border, President Joe Biden and U.S. officials said on Sunday.
Biden blamed Iran-backed groups for the attack, the first deadly strike against U.S. forces since the Israel-Hamas war erupted in October and sent shock waves throughout the Middle East.
It was just a matter of time before something like this happened.
Overall, U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria have been attacked more than 150 times since October 17th…
Iranian-backed militias have mounted more that 150 attacks since Oct. 17 on bases occupied by U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria, according to the Pentagon. The majority of the attacks have been with rockets and one-way attack drones, most of which have been intercepted.
When someone attacks your forces more than 150 times, you are at war with them.
Anyone that thinks otherwise is just being delusional.
In response to Sunday’s attack, Joe Biden told the world that “we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing”…
“While we are still gathering the facts of this attack, we know it was carried out by radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq,” Biden said in a statement.
“Have no doubt – we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing,” he said.
Needless to say, this was not strong enough for many Republican hawks in Congress. Here are just a few of their quotes that have been compiled by Axios…
- Mitch McConnell: Senate Minority Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) called for “serious, crippling costs” to Iran, “not only on front-line terrorist proxies, but on their Iranian sponsors who wear American blood as a badge of honor.”
- Lindsey Graham: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), said in a statement the attacks the U.S. has carried out on Iranian proxies outside Iran “will not deter Iranian aggression,” calling to “strike targets of significance inside Iran.”
- Tom Cotton: “The only answer to these attacks must be devastating military retaliation against Iran’s terrorist forces, both in Iran and across the Middle East,” said Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). “Anything less will confirm Joe Biden as a coward unworthy of being commander-in-chief.”
- John Cornyn: Sen. John Cornyn, in a post on the social media site X, said: “Target Tehran,” later specifying that he wants the U.S. to strike Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. and its Quds Force branch.
Okay, so let’s imagine that Biden does what they want.
Would the Iranians respond by launching missiles at U.S. targets in the region? And how would we respond if the Iranians made such a move?
When it comes to geopolitics, one must always be thinking several moves ahead.
Meanwhile, one of Israel’s most prominent politicians is warning that Iran has become a “legitimate target” for Israeli missiles…
Iran is now a “legitimate target” for Israeli missile strikes, one of the country’s most senior ministers has told the Telegraph, raising the prospect of an all-out war with Tehran.
In a wide-ranging interview, Nir Barkat, Israel’s economy minister, also said Palestinians from the West Bank would never be allowed to work in the country again and would be replaced by more than a quarter of a million imported foreign workers.
He also complained that the war in Gaza had not been fought aggressively enough.
Those that are urging military strikes against targets inside Iran are assuming that the Iranians only possess conventional weapons.
But what if this isn’t true? In fact, for a long time there have been many that have tried to warn us that this isn’t true.
The Iranians are not showing us all their cards, and they have been preparing for this showdown for decades.
Interestingly, the Iranians just launched three new satellites into space…
Iran says it has successfully launched three indigenous satellites into orbit using the Simorgh carrier rocket, marking the first time the country has simultaneously sent three satellites into space.
The satellites launched early on Sunday include Mahda, weighing 32 kg, and two nano-satellites, Keyhan 2 and Hatef 1, of less than 10 kg, sent to a minimum orbit of 450 kilometers (279 miles) and a maximum of 1,100 km (683.5 mi), state media reported, citing the public relations wing of the Defense Ministry.
The Simorgh satellite carrier that carried the three satellites to space has been developed by Iran’s Defense Ministry, the ministry statement noted.
It is believed that these satellites have been sent into orbit for the purpose of guiding ballistic missiles.
We are so close to the unthinkable. Once missiles start flying all over the region, the Middle East will never be the same again.
Meanwhile, the Chinese continue to probe Taiwan’s defenses…
Taiwan’s defense ministry announced on Saturday that over 30 Chinese warplanes were headed toward its country, in addition to navy ships.
Thirty-three aircraft were sent by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army from 6 a.m. Friday to 6 a.m. Saturday, officials said. The aircraft included SU-30 fighters.
An apocalyptic conflict in the Middle East would give China the perfect opportunity to try to “reunite” with Taiwan by force.
So let’s keep a close eye on the Chinese.
And let us not forget about the Russians. Over the weekend, they took even more territory from the Ukrainians.
This is a time of “wars and rumors of wars”, and those that are familiar with my work will not be surprised to hear that I believe that things will greatly escalate later this year.
We should hope for peace, but we should also prepare for war.
Because war is definitely coming, and it will shake billions out of their current state of complacency.
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
Sorry, but you are wrong on this one. War with Iran is inevitable if Biden continues his inept foreign policy. Iran deserves to be taken out; destroy all of their military bases, and the head of the snake. It needs to be a devastating first strike. Unfortunately, Biden and his military chiefs of staff aren’t competent enough to pull it off.
So we know what needs to happen, but won’t do it. Disgraceful!
Iran’s Mullahs don’t do war. They prefer using proxies. We should level the Aitolia’s palace. Maybe he will be home at the time. Then use bunker busters to eliminate their nuclear bomb program.
Iran is smaller that the State of Alaska. C’mon already.
But it has more than 100 times Alaska’s population.
Good, more to kill in one shot
Yes!
Either dispatch Milley’s elite TransSpecial Forces to attack Beijing (Iran’s real backer) or nuke Beijing!
Don’t worry. biden has told iran when he will attack, where he will attack and how he will attack in order to reduce casualties. AND NOTHING WILL HAPPEN AGAIN.
Why are people so dam’d paranoid of Iran? They did the same thing with Iraq.
This is the Psalm. 83 War and Isa.17:1 total destruction of Damascus as a city. This pretrib war will lead up to the rapture of the church and the 7 year tribulation period beginning with the 4 horseman of the apocalypse probably this spring. Biden unwilling to go to war with Iran after they declared war on the U.S. is the same philosophy as Obama. Obama was for ISIS before backlash in the U.S. forced Obama into a half hearted war against ISIS. Trump won that war in 3 weeks. Joe Biden funded Iran to the tune of 60 billion dollars to begin this Psalm 83 War. Joe will not hit Iran, leaving Israel to do it!