(The Center Square)–The Inspector General for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a management alert to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to make it aware of an urgent issue: ICE is incapable of monitoring hundreds of thousands of unaccompanied children (UACs) released into the country by the Biden-Harris administration.
“We found ICE cannot always monitor the location and status of unaccompanied migrant children who are released from DHS and HHS custody,” HHS Inspector General Joseph Cuffari said in a memo to the deputy director of ICE.
“Without an ability to monitor the location and status of UCs, ICE has no assurance UCs are safe from trafficking, exploitation, or forced labor,” the alert states.
In response, U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, requested additional information from HHS about UAC oversight, saying, “lax vetting has placed migrant children in grave danger of exploitation and abuse and makes locating these children after placement difficult, something I fear hinders the work of DHS as well.”
The DHS OIG report found that not only was ICE incapable of monitoring the location and status of all UACs but it was also incapable of initiating removal proceedings as needed.
ICE transferred more than 448,000 UACs to the care of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of Refugee Resettlement, which is responsible for their care, from fiscal years 2019 to 2023. Over the same time period, ICE neglected to issue notices to appear (NTAs) before an immigration judge for 65% of UACs transferred from DHS custody, according to the OIG report, leaving them in limbo.
Of the 448,000 UACs who illegally entered the country and were placed with sponsors through ORR, the majority arrived under the Biden-Harris administration: roughly 366,000, or 81%, between fiscal years 2021 and 2023, Grassley notes.
The report also found that ICE agents didn’t issue NTAs for immigration court hearings to all UACs who were flagged to be removed from the country, despite being required by federal law to do so, the OIG report found.
ICE failed to issue NTAs to at least more than 291,000 UACs who should have been placed in removal proceedings but weren’t, as of May 2024, according to the report.
“ICE was not able to account for the location of all UCs who were released by HHS and did not appear as scheduled in immigration court,” the report states.
At least 32,000 UACs who were given NTAs didn’t show up to their immigration court hearing and ICE doesn’t know where they are. Additionally, ICE didn’t always inform ORR when UACs didn’t show up, contributing to multiple agencies not being able to account for their whereabouts, the report found.
To make matter worse, ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations officers weren’t looking for them, according to the report.
Officers from only one of eight ICE ERO field offices that OIG staff visited said they attempted to locate missing UACs.
Federal agencies not scheduling immigration court dates appears to be a consistent problem, according to several audit reports.
From January 2021 to February 2024, one audit found that 200,000 asylum or other immigration cases were dismissed because DHS didn’t file paperwork with the courts in time for scheduled hearings, The Center Square reported.
Prior to that, 50,000 illegal foreign nationals released into the U.S. by ICE failed to report to their deportation proceedings during a five-month period analyzed in 2021, The Center Square reported. ICE also didn’t have court information on more than 40,000 individuals it’s supposed to prosecute, according to the report, and more than 270,000 illegal foreign nationals were released into the U.S. “with little chance for removal” during that time period, the report found.
Not knowing the whereabouts of the UACs “occurred, in part, because ICE does not have an automated process for sharing information internally between the Office of the Principal Legal Advisor (OPLA) and ERO, and externally with stakeholders, such as HHS and the Department of Justice (DOJ), regarding UCs who do not appear in immigration court,” the OIG report found.
ICE-ERO also hasn’t developed a formal policy or process to find UACs who don’t show up to their court dates, has limited oversight for monitoring them, and faces resource limitations, the OIG says. Nevertheless, “ICE must take immediate action to ensure the safety” of UACs and provide it with the corrective action it will take.
UACs who miss their court dates “are considered at higher risk for trafficking, exploitation, or forced labor,” the OIG says.
Earlier this year, Grassley led a group of 44 senators to introduce a resolution to reform ORR oversight after multiple allegations of sexual abuse of UACs were reported and more than 100,000 UACs appear to be missing, The Center Square reported.
Texas, California and Florida have received the most UACs of all states, The Center Square first reported, with each state receiving record numbers in fiscal 2023. For some states, fiscal 2023 numbers represent 20% or more of the total they received since 2015 or dwarfed previous years.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
