(End of the American Dream)—Expectations can be a very powerful thing. The polls and the prediction markets are both telling us that it is very likely that the midterm elections will give the Democrats control of both the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. Many on the left believe that victory is wrapped up, and they are already savoring what comes next. But what if the polls and the prediction markets are both wrong? The polls and the prediction markets were both wrong in Brazil. The polls and the prediction markets were both wrong in Israel. If they are both wrong again, how will the left respond?
In my opinion, there are a lot of races where Democrats are counting their chickens before they have hatched.
Texas is a perfect example.
The left is giddy because Polymarket is giving James Talarico a 71 percent chance of winning the race…
Just looking at that, you would think that the race is already over.
But an average of recent polls by Real Clear Politics has Talarico up by just 1.4 points…
In the Lone Star State’s Senate race, Democratic State Rep. James Talarico is leading state Attorney General Ken Paxton by 1.4 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics’ average of polls, within the margin of error of many surveys.
This is a very close race.
It could go either way, and so every single vote will count.
So the fact that numerous convicted felons in Texas were just arrested for voting illegally is a tremendous concern…
If one candidate ends up winning by a very small number of votes, this could end up becoming a major point of contention.
In the Michigan Senate race, Polymarket is giving Abdul El-Sayed a 76 percent chance of emerging victorious…
Very little seemed to be going right for Mike Rogers.
But then on Sunday, Haley Stevens stunned the entire country by suddenly endorsing him…
Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., endorsed Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers on Sunday, a major shake-up in the final stages of a top battleground race that could determine which party controls the Senate.
“Hey, Michigan, as you may have seen, our Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, Abdul, said that I was no longer welcome in his campaign and that I should stay away,” Stevens said in a video.
“And he’s right, and that’s why I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate today,” she said. “I don’t belong in Abdul’s campaign.”
Stevens lost a very close race to El-Sayed in Michigan’s Democratic primary in August.
On Sunday, she made an appearance alongside Rogers at a church in Detroit.
The El-Sayed campaign is totally freaking out, and President Trump is suggesting that Stevens should become a member of the Republican Party…
Will this endorsement by Stevens have a significant impact on the race?
Could Rogers still pull off a historic upset?
We will find out on Tuesday night.
The Senate race in Alaska also just took a very strange turn.
Right now, Polymarket is projecting that Mary Peltola has a 75 percent chance of winning…
Perhaps she will end up being victorious, but the “two Dan Sullivans” scandal will undoubtedly hurt her.
On Sunday, Senator Sullivan publicly accused Peltola of knowing all along that another Dan Sullivan had been recruited to run in the general election in order to confuse voters…
Sen. Sullivan on Sunday told CNN’s “State of the Union” that he thought the presence of a second Sullivan on the ballot would impact the election, saying: “I’m sure I’m going to lose a lot of votes to that trickery.”
He also said he doubted Peltola’s claims that she had no idea her top political aides were involved in recruiting Dan J. Sullivan to run as a way to confuse voters.
“There is no way this went on for a year that they weren’t informing her,” Sullivan said. “She got caught lying, and she’s still lying to the Alaskan people, the media, to all of us.”
I know how campaigns work.
There is absolutely no way that Peltola didn’t know what was going on.
If the fake Dan Sullivan is able to siphon off just enough votes for her to win, it is going to cause a massive controversy.
This will especially be true if the balance of power in the U.S. Senate is at stake.
I will be watching the election results on Tuesday night with great interest.
If things don’t go the way that the left is expecting, the sort of widespread rioting that has already erupted in Europe could erupt here as well.
On Saturday, Halloween riots caused “bedlam” in major cities all over Europe…
BEDLAM swept across Europe on Halloween as hundreds of thousands of masked rioters clashed with police on a night of continent-wide chaos.
Thugs firebombed cops as protests spiralled out of control, with shocking images showing an officer in Paris engulfed in flames.
There have been violent riots in Paris for several weekends in a row.
Yesterday, one of the rioters in Paris actually threw a Molotov cocktail at police officers, and that is being investigated as an attempted murder…
An attempted murder investigation has opened in Paris after a Molotov cocktail was thrown at police by Halloween rioters on the strife-torn streets of the French capital.
In all four police officers and one gendarme were injured in attacks by far-left extremist groups, three of them burned by targeted incendiary devices.
“Attempted homicide against persons holding public authority” was specifically cited by investigators on Saturday night, Le Figaro reports.
There is no excuse for this kind of violence.
Up until yesterday, Germany was relatively quiet compared to France, but now that has changed.
There were riots in dozens of German cities on Saturday, and arsonists had a field day…
Dozens of German cities also erupted in chaos – as raging Gen Z rioters wreaked a path of destruction through hubs like Berlin.
Garbage bins were set ablaze and e-scooters were piled up in the streets before being engulfed in flames in fiery barricades near Rosenthaler Platz.
Pyrotechnics were also fired at buses while police vans were scrawled over with graffiti, according to Berlin police.
At this point, there are very few Western European nations that haven’t experienced riots.
In addition to France and Germany, over the weekend chaos also erupted in Portugal, Italy and the Netherlands…
In Portugal, thousands of demonstrators gathered in Lisbon once again to protest the housing crisis. The movement has faced criticism from the Portuguese right, which accuses left-wing and far-left groups of driving the protests.
In The Hague, Netherlands, protests broke out after calls to demonstrate circulated online. According to Dutch police, 34 people were arrested, and one officer was taken to hospital with suspected hearing damage after fireworks were thrown at police. As in Paris, many shops across the city had boarded up their windows amid fears of rioting.
On Oct. 30, large crowds took to the streets across Italy following a call to demonstrate by the Italian trade union USB. The union estimated that more than 1 million people participated in protests across 70 cities, while the Interior Ministry put the figure at 255,000. Violent clashes between demonstrators and police broke out in Rome, Turin, Mestre, Vicenza, and other cities, according to Corriere della Sera.
It wouldn’t take much to cause similar rioting here in the United States.
If the midterm elections don’t go as they expect, that will put many on the left in an extremely bad mood.
And when the U.S. and Israel start bombing Iran again, that could motivate a lot of political activists to take to the streets.
As we witnessed here in the United States in 2020 and as we are witnessing in Europe right now, once the ball gets rolling it can be very difficult to stop a widespread series of extremely violent riots.
In my opinion, it is just a matter of time before we see a blazing inferno of anger and frustration in this country.
All it will take is a big enough spark, and that spark could potentially be just around the corner.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
