Over the past few years, we have seen food prices in the United States and other wealthy countries do things that they have never done before. Unfortunately, this is just the beginning. Global food supplies are getting tighter, and meanwhile global demand for food just continues to increase. For decades, many among the elite were optimistic that someday we would be able to eliminate global hunger completely because tremendous progress was being made. But then right around 2015 things started to reverse, and now the trend is very much going in the wrong direction. According to the United Nations, 2.4 billion people did not have enough food to eat last year, and 900 million of them were facing severe food insecurity. Those numbers will almost certainly go even higher this year, because it is getting more difficult for poor countries to get the food that they need to feed their populations.
For example, just consider what is happening to rice prices.
Rice is a core staple for billions of people around the globe, and India is the most important exporter of rice by a very wide margin…
More than half of the rice imports in around 42 countries originate from India, and in many African nations, India’s market share in rice imports surpasses 80%, according to Ifpri.
In top consuming countries in Asia – Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand and Sri Lanka, for example – the share of rice consumption in total calorie intake a day ranges from 40% to 67%.
Now that India has severely restricted rice exports, what are those nations going to do?
According to the BBC, India’s export ban “has sparked worries about runaway global rice prices”…
Indica white rice dominates around 70% of the global trade, and India has now ceased its export. This comes on top of the country’s ban last year of exports of broken rice and a 20% duty on non-basmati rice exports.
Not surprisingly, July’s export ban has sparked worries about runaway global rice prices.
Sadly, this is already starting to happen.
In fact, the price of Thai white rice is already “up over 50% since the start of 2022”…
On Wednesday, the Thai Rice Exporters Association revealed that the price of Thai white rice 5% broken, a key Asian benchmark, reached the highest level since Great Financial Crisis. This surge is mainly attributed to increasing fears of a global shortage due to the damaging effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon on Asian farmlands and India’s recent decision to restrict certain rice exports.
Thai white rice 5% broken hit $648 per ton this week, the highest level since October 2008. Prices are up over 50% since the start of 2022.
Of course it isn’t just the price of rice that is rising.
Here in the United States, just about everything in our grocery stores is becoming a lot more expensive…
Americans are noticing a lot of sold-out notes on Costco shelves in the past few weeks. Shortages of household supplies and basic grocery items seem to be rapidly spreading across Costco warehouses. However, most of the complaints have been published by shoppers that just can’t believe the price hikes they’re seeing at their local stores. One major example of this was the 250% increase in the price of 40-packs of Kirkland-branded water bottles. One Redditor reported that the bulk buy, which cost $1.44 as recently as a year ago, now costs $4.99.
“Yeah that used to be the case at the beginning of the year, just checked yesterday, and $4.99, ridiculous,” user u/ghx16 wrote.
User jasonsparks19 said that crab legs have more than doubled in price over the past year: “King crab legs went from $23/lb to $48/lb.”
That’s a 110% increase. It has been difficult for shoppers to find chicken nuggets in stock at Costco, as they are often sold out in the frozen section due to the high demand. They used to cost $13 for a four-pound bag, but are now going for $19.99, causing some customers to express their displeasure with the price hike on Reddit.
“I saw them today for the first time in a while too. My jaw dropped when I saw the price and I kept walking,” a commenter said.
Have you noticed similar things where you live?
I wish that I could tell you that there will soon be relief, but I can’t do that. As I regularly discuss on my websites, global food production is being hammered by crisis after crisis right now. And the food that isn’t being produced in 2023 is food that will not be available on store shelves in 2024.
Here in the western world, that will mean even higher prices, but on the other side of the planet that will mean that even fewer poor people will have enough food to eat.
A global famine has now begun, and in a recent article James Lasher explained that many Americans are feverishly preparing for even harder times ahead…
The price of groceries continues to rise putting millions on edge about the availability of food across the U.S.
Many are bracing for even harder times to hit the country and are preparing, much like Joseph did as a ruler in Egypt before the famine struck.
But if you only listen to the mainstream media, they are making it seem as though nothing is amiss at all.
For example, the following comes from an article that USA Today just posted entitled “Need an afternoon sweet treat? McDonald’s new Peanut Butter Crunch McFlurry is out now”…
If you’ve been able to recover from McDonald’s purple Grimace shakes, the fast-food chain has a new sweet treat available for a limited time.
Just try not to pass out this time for a viral TikTok trend, OK?
The Peanut Butter Crunch McFlurry debuted Wednesday at participating locations nationwide. The dessert is made with vanilla soft serve and blended with crispy cereal mix and chunks of chocolatey peanut butter cookie.
See, everything must be just great if this is front page news!
Amazingly, this is the sort of pablum that passes for “journalism” these days.
They aren’t telling you the truth.
The truth is that we really are facing a historic global food crisis, and in the months and years ahead it is going to get a whole lot worse. But for now, many in the western world are completely ignoring the millions upon millions of deeply suffering people on the other side of the planet. Of course ignoring them will not make the problem go away, nor will it do anything about the long-term trends that are making the global food crisis even worse with each passing day.
Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
Article cross-posted from The Economic Collapse Blog.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
