(The Economic Collapse Blog)—The health of the economy has been a major determining factor in many past presidential elections, and the health of the economy is certainly going to have an enormous influence on the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. In fact, according to a poll that was just released by Rasmussen the economy is the number one issue by a wide margin for voters in the ultra-important swing state of Pennsylvania. Unfortunately for the Democrats, most Americans are not pleased with how the economy is performing, and it appears that conditions are now taking another turn for the worse. The following are 10 signs that the economy is a giant mess as the election approaches…
#1 The number of Americans filing first time claims for unemployment benefits just hit the highest level in over a year…
The number of people filing for unemployment for the first time was at its highest levels in more than a year, partly due to storm damage and labor stoppages.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 5 came in at 258,000, up 33,000 from last week’s level of 225,000, and the highest since it hit the same level in August 2023, data from the Labor Department shows.
#2 According to Primerica’s latest Financial Security Monitor report, the percentage of middle-income households that “rate their personal financial situation negatively” has hit the highest level that they have ever recorded…
Primerica’s latest Financial Security Monitor report for the third quarter found 55% of middle-income households now rate their personal financial situation negatively, a 6-point jump from the previous survey.
“For the first time in a year, a majority of middle-income households are feeling negative about their personal finances,” said Glenn Williams, CEO of Primerica. “In fact, this latest report represents the highest negative rating we’ve seen since we began fielding the survey exactly four years ago.”
#3 I am old enough to remember a time in this country when you were set for life if you had a million dollars. Unfortunately, thanks to our endless cost of living crisis it now costs 4.4 million dollars to live “the American Dream” over the course of a lifetime…
You can live the American Dream, but it will cost you.
The lifetime tab for such aspirations as owning a home, driving new cars, raising kids and taking annual vacations comes to a cool $4.4 million, according to Investopedia, the financial media site.
That’s more than the average American earns in a lifetime.
#4 The company that produces more french fries than anyone else in North America is cutting production and laying off workers due to a dramatic slowdown in consumer demand…
Lamb Weston, the largest producer of french fries in North America and a major supplier to fast-food chains, restaurants and grocery stores, is closing a production plant in Washington state. The company announced last week that it would lay off nearly 400 employees, or 4% of its workforce, and temporarily cut production lines in response to slowing customer demand.
#5 At one time Boeing was flying high, but now it has decided to lay off approximately 10 percent of its entire workforce…
The CEO of Boeing told employees late Friday that the company plans to cut 10% of its total staff “over the coming months.”
“Our business is in a difficult position, and it is hard to overstate the challenges we face together,” said Kelly Ortberg, who started at CEO of the troubled aircraft maker two months ago and has been dealing with a strike by 33,000 hourly workers for half his time on the job.
#6 The banking industry continues to deeply struggle. So far this year, banks in the United States have permanently shut down over 700 local branches…
US banks closed more than 700 branches in the first nine months of the year, forcing thousands to travel further to access vital services.
Bank of America closed the most locations of any bank, shuttering 132 between January and September.
U.S. Bank followed swiftly behind, having closed 101 of their own branches.
#7 After 75 years, True Value has been forced to file for bankruptcy and will be “selling substantially all of its operations to a rival”…
True Value, a 75-year old hardware store brand, has filed for bankruptcy and is selling substantially all of its operations to a rival, the company announced Monday.
In a press release, True Value said it will continue day-to-day operations of selling hardware and other homeware tools to its 4,500 independently operated locations during the Chapter 11 process, which includes a $153 million stalking horse bid from rival company Do it Best.
#8 Did you ever think that you would live to see a day when hundreds of 7-Eleven stores would be closing? Sadly, that time has now arrived…
Several hundred “underperforming” 7-Eleven locations across North America are closing, the convenience store announced.
Seven & I Holdings, the chain’s Japan-based parent company, revealed in an earnings report Thursday that 444 locations of 7-Eleven are shutting down because of a variety of issues, including slowing sales, declining traffic, inflationary pressures and a decrease in cigarette purchases.
#9 Home Depot apparently believes that rough times are ahead, because they are dumping millions of square feet of warehouse space…
Home Depot is hastily exiting warehouse space, to the tune of 3.2 million square feet in a month, according to Bisnow.
Since late August, Home Depot has put up nearly 4 million square feet of warehouse space for sublease, including a 1.3M SF Phoenix warehouse and a 1.1M SF distribution center in the Inland Empire, according to CoStar Analytics.
#10 At this point, things are so bad that even Disney is laying off workers…
According to sources cited by Deadline, Disney is pushing ahead with new layoffs as part of a broader “cost-saving initiative.” About 300 employees across Disney’s corporate divisions will be impacted this week.
The layoffs of 300 employees began on Tuesday and will continue until the end of the week. They are all US-based employees who work across the company’s corporate operations, including legal, HR, finance, and communications.
If you have recently lost your job, I feel very badly for you, because the employment market has gotten a lot more “complicated” than it was in the old days.
Once upon a time, being good at what you do was enough.
But now other considerations are often more important than pure merit…
A top Oregon state official has been put on administrative leave after a pink-haired, DEI-obsessed subordinate complained he was making hiring decisions based on qualifications instead of personal identity considerations, according to a report.
Mike Shaw, who until recently served as the Oregon Department of Forestry’s second-in-command, was put on blast by Megan Donecker, the department’s former DEI strategy officer, for looking “beyond gender and identity in hiring, seeking only candidates most qualified for the job,” OregonLive reported.
He was formally placed on administrative leave Aug. 6 after Donecker filed a formal complaint, according to the Daily Mail.
Isn’t that nuts?
Our society is getting crazier with each passing day, and I am deeply concerned about where all of this is heading.
Sadly, the tough economic times that we are experiencing now are not even worth comparing to the pain that is coming if we don’t turn things around.
Our system is literally crumbling right in front of our eyes, and unless something dramatic happens economic conditions in this country will soon become extremely harsh.
Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
