(WND)—Tragically, it was a day of “nines.” It occurred on 9 February 2001; it happened 9 miles south of Oahu, Hawaii; and the accident claimed nine lives.
Who would have thought it could ever happen? Due to the total unlikelihood of such an occurrence, one wonders how long it took for those onboard the Japanese fishing boat and research vessel – the 191-foot Ehime Maru – to even realize what was happening before it quickly sank.
It is a big ocean, yet on that day, the nuclear attack submarine USS Greenville (SSN-772), in an emergency surfacing maneuver, unwarily surfaced right underneath the Japanese ship. The sub’s rudder sliced into the hull of the Ehime Maru, causing it to sink in a matter of minutes.
While 25 survivors were rescued, nine aboard the fishing vessel, including four high school students, died. But imagine the horror the survivors experienced being lifted up out of the sea as clear skies on a bright sunny day betrayed signs of any immediate danger.
As it turned out, there had been no real emergency on the submarine. It was simply conducting an emergency ascent from the depths below to demonstrate to civilian visitors onboard how quickly it could be done.
However, the accident put the lie to the concept that little ships operate in big oceans. In the Ehime Maru’s case, it turned out to be a very small ocean indeed.
Due to this collision, however, the Navy made significant changes to submarine surfacing maneuvers. The absence of any repeat incidents almost a quarter of a century later demonstrates success in “enlarging” the ocean for surface vessels by implementing new measures for their safety.
Similarly, when it comes to aviation, the “Big Sky Theory” suggests that “collisions between aircraft are unlikely due to the vastness of airspace.” Of course, that big sky is severely reduced as aircraft converge in proximity to the same airport. This was the scenario on the evening of Jan. 29, 2025 at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA).
An American Airlines passenger jet on approach to the airport and a U.S. Army Blackhawk helicopter on a night training mission heading for Ft. Belvoir in Virginia, collided in midair at 8:47 p.m.
There were no survivors as 67 people lost their lives (64 on the jet and three on the helicopter) as the two aircraft exploded and fell into the Potomac River.
Much more operating room existed for the two ships involved in the accident off of Oahu as the flight path of these two aircraft was restricted due to heavy traffic.
It will undoubtedly take months for an investigation into the cause of the air disaster to be completed. Clearly, however, among the cast of characters involved both in the air and on the ground, someone dropped the ball.
Some factors possibly contributing to the disaster include the answers to the following:
- Did an understaffed control tower – while still in compliance with federal regulations – create an overburdened air traffic controller (ATC)?
- Was the helicopter crew undermanned? (An expert suggests there should have been two crew chiefs rather than one, thus enabling a pair of eyes to simultaneously scan both sides of the aircraft for any approaching planes.)
- Was the helicopter observing its maximum altitude restriction of 200 feet? The evidence is somewhat confusing on this as the tower detected it at a lower altitude than it actually was in order for the collision to have occurred. But it does appear the helicopter was definitely off-course from one of the standard routes helicopters were to fly when near DCA. One report indicates the helicopter was for some reason transitioning between two of these routes.
- As the helicopter was conducting an “annual evaluation” flight in which a senior instructor pilot evaluates a junior pilot and if the altitude restriction was exceeded, how could the former not have observed it unless, perhaps, there was an altimeter malfunction?
- Pilots on both aircraft were in direct contact with the ATC, but were they able to communicate with each other since they normally operate on different frequencies?
- Mysteriously, the responses from the helicopter to the ATC were sent via text, rather than audio. Why was this, especially when the situation warranted instantaneous communication via audio?
- A video of the collision gives the appearance that the helicopter targeted the jet, raising the question of who was flying it at the time – the senior or junior pilot – and was there anything in either pilot’s personal history to suggest this may have been a suicide mission? Interestingly, the senior pilot’s social media account was quickly scrubbed after the accident.
- Did a last-minute landing change for the jet by the ATC, resulting in an adjustment of its flight path to a shorter runway, cause any confusion?
- Did swirling crosswinds have an impact?
- Based on the communication exchange between the helicopter pilot and the ATC indicating the former had the jet in sight, was a misidentification made?
At a post-crash press conference, President Donald Trump implied that his predecessor’s diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policy could have been a factor but did not articulate exactly how. The investigation will undoubtedly focus on the training and experience of all involved and their superiors as well. If the senior helicopter pilot was inexperienced, the DCA flight corridor should never have been used for an annual evaluation.
Despite a nighttime sky, visibility was clear. ATC audio reveals less than 30 seconds before the crash, the helicopter was specifically asked if it could see the jet. The helicopter crew responded, “… aircraft in sight, request ‘visual separation.’”
This term refers to an ATC method used to ensure aircraft are kept apart in such confined flight areas. While instructed to pass behind the jet, less than 13 seconds later the collision occurred.
While the loss of 67 souls is a great tragedy, an ultimate result of the investigation into this air disaster will lead – as it did to “enlarging” the oceans for safe travel by surface traffic due to the 2001 sinking – to a similar enlargement of the skies for safer air travel.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.





