According to fixed-income markets and recent speeches from Fed governors, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates this month.
As of December 4, prediction site Kalshi places the chance of a 25 bps cut at 71%. At the same time, just over 75% of interest rate traders expect a quarter percentage point cut at the December 18 Fed meeting.
The Federal Reserve has also signaled that further cuts are likely.
“Based on the economic data in hand today and forecasts that show that inflation will continue on its downward path to 2 percent over the medium term, at present I lean toward supporting a cut to the policy rate at our December meeting. But that decision will depend on whether data that we will receive before then surprises to the upside and alters my forecast for the path of inflation,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on December 2, per Forbes.
Should the Fed lower rates this month, it would represent the third cut this year. […]
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