(The Epoch Times)—Oil prices dropped and stocks around the world rallied on April 1 on renewed hopes of a quick end to the Middle East war after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States could be leaving Iran in two to three weeks, with or without a deal.
The front-month Brent contract for June fell $1.06, or 1 percent, to $102.91 per barrel at about 7 a.m. ET, having dropped to a session low of $98.35. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May slipped $1.44, or 1.4 percent, to $99.94 per barrel, after falling to $96.50 earlier.
“Oil prices fell after U.S. President Trump signalled a potential end to the war with Iran,” ING analysts said in an April 1 note.
Trump told reporters on March 31 that the United States could leave Iran within two to three weeks, suggesting an agreement with Tehran may be reached but is not required for the conflict to end.
He also urged U.S. allies to secure their own energy access through the Strait of Hormuz, the key oil transit waterway that Iran has been blocking, driving up energy prices and fears of shortages and a deeper economic crisis.
After Trump’s earlier calls on NATO allies to help U.S. forces reopen the strait went unheeded, he said on Tuesday that they should “build up some delayed courage,” do it themselves, and secure their own energy supplies.
ING analysts said that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, clearing the backlog of vessels would take time, and that energy production and export would normalize “only gradually rather than immediately.”
Global Stocks Rebound
South Korea’s Kospi recovered its losses from earlier this week, surging 8.4 percent to 5,478.70, while Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 5.2 percent to 53,739.68, as of around 3:30 a.m. ET on April 1. A survey by Japan’s central bank, released on April 1, showed improved sentiment among major Japanese manufacturers despite concerns over the Iran war.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 2.2 percent to 25,339.45, while the Shanghai Composite index was trading 1.5 percent higher at 3,948.55.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 2.2 percent to 8,671.80, while Taiwan’s Taiex climbed 4.6 percent, and India’s Sensex rose 1.7 percent.
Wall Street futures were up around 0.5 percent as of 6:40 a.m. ET.
Some analysts said that the lingering effects of the war could persist even after the conflict ends, though a halt to the fighting would almost certainly mean more upside for equities.
“De-escalation hopes have given markets a lift, but we think the effects of the war would, in many cases, persist even if the war did end soon,” Thomas Mathews, head of markets at Asia Pacific at Capital Economics, wrote in an April 1 research note.
“It’s worth thinking through how markets might fare if the war were to end ‘very soon.’ Do markets have further to recover if sentiment continues to improve? The answer is almost certainly yes.”
Inflation Pressures Build
The Iran war has rattled global energy markets. U.S. gas prices jumped past an average of $4 a gallon on March 31, the first time since 2022.
Inflation in the eurozone surged from 1.9 percent in February to 2.5 percent in March due to higher energy costs, which have pushed pump prices up by 15 percent in the euro area over the past month.
“Consumers expect another rough ride,” ING analysts said in a March 31 note, pointing out that inflation expectations in the eurozone have surged to levels only seen in the early 1990s and during the first half of 2022.
Trump told UK newspaper The Telegraph in an April 1 interview that he is seriously reconsidering U.S. membership in NATO, saying that his request for assistance in the Strait of Hormuz was a test that allies didn’t pass.
Describing the alliance as a “paper tiger,” Trump said removing the United States from the pact was now “beyond reconsideration.”
His remarks built on U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s comments on Tuesday that Washington must reexamine its relationship with the alliance because members didn’t help the United States in the conflict, now into its fifth week.
The White House said that Trump will deliver a public address on Wednesday evening on the Iran war.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
