(The Epoch Times)—We’ve not seen days like these for gold and silver since the late 1970s. It is nothing short of spectacular for investors and hoarders of the tried and true metals. People who have kept the faith in the real are being rewarded. For everyone else, these are scary signs concerning what might be coming our way.
For thousands of years, these two metals have been the most valued in human experience. That’s why they became money, which is the good we acquire to buy other goods. Money becomes that because the market selects the good in question. It’s the most marketable commodity.
Gold and silver have always fit the description because they have uniform quality, have a high value per unit of weight, they are durable, and are highly divisible. So they became money in most places in the industrializing world.
I recently bought some old U.S. quarters and dimes, which were made of silver. The price is far above the stated value because the money was devalued, while the specie value kept rising. They are really wonderful to hold and own because they serve as a reminder of what sound money means. They also symbolize economic and financial independence.
It’s been half a century since the age of fiat money dawned. The United States has tried an experiment to make due with a currency that has no underlying integrity. It’s just paper or just digits. This was supposed to be more modern. We turned our backs on the “barbarous relic,” as J.M. Keynes called gold.
The prediction made early in the fiat age was that these metals would fall in value to reflect their industrial uses. The monetary premium would disappear because they would no longer be money. The intellectuals, not the relics, would be in charge now.
The very opposite happened. Throughout the 1970s, both gold and silver boomed. It was a massive vote of confidence in the real and an insult to the new elites who promised a better system. It humiliated them.
We seemed to have embarked on another wave of the same. They are both soaring.
For all the world, this feels like a flight to the real. Central banks want gold and silver. Large investors. Heavily leveraged brokers. Huge institutions. Regular consumers. Everyone is grabbing as much of the stuff as possible right now.
Will there be a correction? Maybe. But this is truly worrisome. It reveals a lack of confidence in our fiat world.
The data right now seems to back up a genuine cause for worry. Inflation nearly disappeared completely once Trump took office. It happened without explanation. Maybe it was a reflection of optimism by business that they could eat more of the increased wholesale costs because big profits were headed their way.
While dramatic things are happening under Trump in many areas—immigration, trade, cuts in the power and reach of the civil service, the end of DEI, new liberties in speech, truth in public health—other realms have not been so great. Spending is out of control, still. The Fed has accelerated quantitative easing yet again. And the Trump administration is pushing for lower interest rates.
Meanwhile, inflation is no longer declining. It is increasing.
This is not a good trend. It is ominous for the Trump administration.
If there is one force in the world capable of wiping out all the good that has happened since January 2025, it is inflation. If people cannot pay their bills, all of politics becomes theater. People will blame Trump, rightly or wrongly. This will be on his watch.
There is this long history of governments being unaware of the inflation problem until it is too late. The Weimar central bank of 1920 had no idea that the complete destruction of the German currency was three years into the future. This is because central bankers always and everywhere are convinced that they have matters under control.
They do have things under control until they do not. This is the worry. The Fed right now needs to defy the Trump administration and keep rates high and money tight. They could in fact prompt a recession but this can be mitigated with deregulation and a lower tax burden.
What is not easily fixed is a second wave of inflation. This is precisely what the increase in precious metals prices portends. It is sending a grave signal that markets are unconvinced that the Trump administration has the fiscal and monetary situation under control. Truth is that it does not. The debt problem is getting worse, not better. The red ink seems to flow regardless of whatever DOGE has done and regardless of all the cuts in bureaucracy and agency costs.
Here is the root cause of the gold and silver boom. It represents a flight to safety in anticipation of some possible crisis in the future. But there are other matters too, such as an emerging regional bank crisis. There are lingering issues concerning commercial real estate yet resolved. No one knows for sure how firm or shaky the fiat financial system truly is.
A serious financial crisis could in fact be around the corner. Housing is out of control. Financial markets have gone absolutely bonkers over AI. The leverage in every sector is without precedent. It’s all rooted in a belief that a fiat world is practicable and possible. But is it really? Many people are starting to doubt it.
When you hold physical gold and silver, you feel it and know it. It is the real deal. No permissions. No governments. No authorities. No brokers. It’s secure value and nothing more. It represents independence and freedom.
Remember that we live in a time when trust is lost in nearly everything. It makes sense that this would extend to financial intermediaries too. No one is putting 100 percent of their net wealth into precious metals. Investing is all about hedging risk in many directions, involving many scenarios.
Apparently one of those scenarios that is being entertained among people with big money is the possibility of complete financial and monetary breakdown. The Trump administration needs to pay close attention to this and the signal it is sending. There are ways to fix this problem but it is going to require some very hard decisions.
The markets never tell the perfect truth but they are sending a message that deserves close attention. Gold and silver were supposed to be gone by now but here we are. They are back again and with ferocity.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
