With the ongoing exodus from government schools continuing to gather momentum, a new forecast by education researchers predicts that almost one third of school-age children will be homeschooled by the year 2030. Just half of the student population will remain in government education by then, the analysts found.
The organization behind the predictions, a research institute known as The Learning Counsel, considered a wide array of factors in developing its forecasts of looming “significant shifts in the landscape and structures of education by 2030.” Major elements include new “choice” programs and growing resistance to union demands by governors.
According to The Learning Counsel’s predictions, only 50.26 percent of American students will remain enrolled in public schools (including government charters and “virtual” schools) six years from now. That would represent a decline of 16 million students between today and 2030, the organization said in a report about “The Future of K12 Education.”
“This loss is despite massive new enrollments of new immigrants, and will be cataclysmic for traditional schools, politics, and the vendors that rely on sales to this sector,” the report said. “Some of this loss is due to lower birth rates. By far the majority of the loss will be due to inflexibility in both schedule and inability to be remote.” […]
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