(The Economic Collapse Blog)—If there is something that you really need to buy, you might want to get it now, because it might not be available later. The International Longshoremen’s Association port workers are on the verge of initiating a strike which would shut down ports all over the East Coast and the Gulf Coast, and if that strike lasts long enough it will throw U.S. supply chains into a state of complete and utter chaos.
Needless to say, this could have a huge impact on the upcoming election. If store shelves are quite bare in early November, millions of Americans will be in a very bad mood when they go to vote.
If it happens, the strike will begin on Tuesday. This is the first time that we have seen a strike of this nature in nearly 50 years…
Thousands of longshoremen at ports from New England to Texas are set to strike early Tuesday in the first walkout of its kind in almost half a century, freezing commercial shipping on a massive scale and disrupting the national economy weeks before the presidential election.
A strike would be the biggest disruption to the flow of goods in and out of the country since the height of the pandemic. Even a short-lived work stoppage would snarl shipping and create havoc in supply chains for weeks. Cargo ranging from cars to electronics, from food to furniture, would be stuck on ships offshore. Each day a strike lasts could cost the U.S. economy up to $1 billion, according to analysts.
If the strike only lasts for a few days, it won’t really be a big deal. But if it is an extended strike, major retailers such as Walmart and Home Depot will be facing massive supply chain headaches…
As the International Longshoremen’s Association port workers move closer to a strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, the union is warning that major importers such as LG Electronics, Walmart, Ikea, Samsung, and Home Depot will find no options to divert trade to Canada or the West Coast as other unions close ranks in support of its labor battle.
These companies are among the leading importers at the 14 major ports that an ILA strike would impact, according to ImportGenius. Overall, between 43%-49% of all U.S. imports and billions of dollars in trade monthly are at stake as the union moves closer to the Oct. 1 deadline for a new contract, over which talks between the union and ports management broke down in June and have not resumed. Cruise operations at ports would continue.
Joe Biden could have used a provision in federal law to delay the strike until after the election, but he has chosen not to do that…
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Sunday he did not intend to intervene to prevent a port strike on the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico if dock workers failed to secure a new contract by an Oct. 1 deadline.
“It’s collective bargaining. I don’t believe in Taft-Hartley,” he told reporters.
Presidents can intervene in labor disputes that threaten national security or safety by imposing an 80-day cooling-off period under the federal Taft-Hartley Act.
This could end up being a colossal strategic mistake on Biden’s part.
If an extended strike causes serious economic turmoil as Americans head to the polls, that will not be good for the Democrats.
According to CNN, if there is an extended strike we could soon experience “shortages of chocolate, alcohol, popular fruit, including bananas and cherries, and even certain cars”…
Businesses have been nervously watching the 12:01 am Tuesday strike deadline approaching with little sign of progress toward a deal to avoid a strike of tens of thousands longshore workers. Many have been doing what they can to prepare for the shutdown – but there are limits.
It doesn’t make economic – or logistical – sense to ship many of the goods that come into East Coast ports by alternative ports of entry – or by plane.
That means America could see some shortages of chocolate, alcohol, popular fruit, including bananas and cherries, and even certain cars if the strike lasts a long time. That could mean higher prices for the goods that are available.
Of course that would just be the tip of the iceberg.
As we witnessed during the COVID pandemic, thousands of different products can be in short supply when there are major supply chain disruptions.
And once the strike is over, it may take some time to get supply chains back to normal…
As everyone discovered during the COVID-19 pandemic, container ports are a choke point in a supply chain as essential to daily life in the United States as water, electricity and telecommunications. Disruptions have a ripple effect throughout the economy and are exponentially compounded as goods pile up at ports, terminals, warehouses and other distribution points. So it takes longer to restart the flow of goods than it does to stop it. Considerably longer.
The devastation caused by Hurricane Helene is also going to have an enormous impact on supply chains.
Sadly, the storm caught the vast majority of the population off guard as it carved a path of “apocalyptic chaos” all over the South…
Apocalyptic chaos has struck down in the South as millions are left without power with desperate families lining up at gas stations and roving mobs steal generators.
The southeastern United States has been plunged into crisis as the aftermath of Hurricane Helene continues to wreak havoc across multiple states.
The storm has left a trail of destruction in its wake with the death toll rising to 64.
This is being called a “once in a generation” storm, and at this moment hundreds of roads in North Carolina and South Carolina are closed…
About 300 roads are closed in North Carolina and another 150 are closed in South Carolina, acting Federal Highway Administrator Kristin White of the US Department of Transportation said Sunday. North Carolina officials on Sunday acknowledged those closures have hampered delivery of water supplies to communities in need, like the city of Weaverville in Buncombe County, which is without both power and water, Mayor Patrick Fitzsimmons said.
Even the largest highways in the region have been devastated.
In fact, it is being reported that Interstate 40 is “impassable” right now…
Interstate 40 is impassable between Tennessee and Asheville, North Carolina, and beyond, because of catastrophic floods from the remnants of Hurricane Helene.
A mudslide and flooding have shut down the route.
What a nightmare.
As I shared with my core supports on Friday, recovery is going to be measured in years in some areas.
One official in North Carolina is even comparing the storm to Hurricane Katrina…
Towns throughout western North Carolina, including Swannanoa, were transformed overnight by the massive storm. Muddy floodwaters lifted homes from their foundations. Landslides and overflowing rivers severed the only way in and out of small mountain communities. Rescuers said they were struggling to respond to the high number of emergency calls. Anxious relatives took to Facebook to search for loved ones they hadn’t heard from.
“This is looking to be Buncombe County’s own Hurricane Katrina,” said Avril Pinder, the manager of the county, which includes Asheville.
This storm wasn’t supposed to be this powerful.
But after everything that we just witnessed, it is now being projected that the total damage from Helene could exceed 100 billion dollars…
Helene, a Category 4 hurricane when she hit the Big Bend of Florida on Thursday night, is forecast to leave behind between $95 billion and $110 billion in damage and economic loss. Property damage alone is forecast by Moody’s to run $15 billion to $26 billion.
Last year, the number of “billion dollar disasters” established a brand new record.
It appears that we will break that record this year.
But of course what we have been through so far is nothing compared to what is coming.
We really are living in apocalyptic times, and the chaos is just getting started…
Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
