(The Economic Collapse Blog)—Did you know that U.S. households are 17,690,000,000,000 dollars in debt? Of course household debt is only one part of a much larger story. The federal government is 34 trillion dollars in debt, state and local governments are absolutely drowning in debt and unfunded liabilities, and corporate debt is at an all-time high.
As a society, we are on the greatest debt binge in the history of the world, and it just gets worse every single year. Previous generations handed us an economy that provided us with an incredibly high standard of living, but we always had to have more. So we have been borrowing and spending with no end in sight, and now our day of reckoning is fast approaching.
According to the New York Fed, U.S. household debt surged to another record high during the first quarter of this year…
In the first three months of 2024, total household debt surged to a fresh record of $17.69 trillion, an increase of $184 billion, or 1.1% from the previous quarter. The increase mostly stemmed from a jump in mortgage balances, which rose $190 billion from the previous quarter to $12.44 trillion at the end of March.
If we could handle all that debt, there wouldn’t be much cause for alarm. Unfortunately, delinquency rates are rising.
In fact, the proportion of credit card balances in serious delinquency has risen to the highest level since 2012…
A growing number of Americans are falling behind on their monthly credit card payments as they continue to battle high inflation and interest rates, according to New York Federal Reserve data published Tuesday.
Credit card delinquencies, which have already surpassed their pre-pandemic levels, continued to rise in the three-month period from January to March.
The flow of credit card debt moving into delinquency hit 8.9% in the first quarter at an annualized rate, compared with an 8.5% rate the previous quarter and 5.87% at the end of 2023. In fact, the percentage of credit card balances in serious delinquency climbed to its highest level since 2012.
In 2012, we were just coming out of the Great Recession.
Now a new economic crisis has begun, and millions of U.S. households are teetering on the brink of financial disaster.
If you use credit cards, it is so important to pay them off in full every month. Unfortunately, approximately 44 percent of all cardholders do not do that…
Overall credit card balances totaled $1.115 trillion in the first quarter of the year, $129 billion more than last year. For card users who pay their balance in full every month, that’s not a problem. But according to Bankrate, roughly 44% of borrowers carry credit card debt over from month to month.
It has always been financial suicide to carry credit card balances from month to month, and that is especially true today because interest rates are so ridiculously high…
The rise in credit card usage and debt is particularly concerning because interest rates are astronomically high. The average credit card annual percentage rate, or APR, hit a new record of 20.72% last week, according to a Bankrate database that dates to 1985. The previous record was 19% in July 1991.
If people are carrying debt to compensate for steeper prices, they could end up paying more for items in the long run. For instance, if you owe $5,000 in debt, which Americans do on average, current APR levels would mean it would take about 279 months and $8,124 in interest to pay off the debt making the minimum payments.
I always encourage my readers to pay off high interest debt as soon as possible.
If you have credit card debt, eliminating it should be your number one financial goal. Sadly, the New York Fed’s new report tells us that an increasing number of Americans are getting behind on their credit cards and their auto loans…
The Fed’s report showed 6.9% of credit card debt transitioned to serious delinquency last quarter, up from 4.6% a year ago. And for credit card holders aged 18–29, 9.9% of balances were in serious delinquency.
Auto loan delinquencies are also higher as the average monthly car payment jumped to $738 in 2023. Close to 2.8% of auto loans are now 90 or more days delinquent — that equates to more than 3 million cars. Auto loans are the second-largest debt category following mortgage debt, with $1.62 trillion outstanding.
Tens of millions of U.S. households have severely overextended themselves financially.
When you get to a point where you are so far in debt that you can barely make the minimum payments, it can feel like you are “trapped” with no way out…
High interest rates are pushing low- and moderate-income Americans who have fallen behind on credit card payments and auto loans to the brink, according to a new report.
“It’s crazy,” 43-year-old Army veteran Ora Dorsey told The New York Times. “It does make it hard to get out of debt. It seems like you’re only paying the interest.”
“We don’t have the credit to be able to buy a house, and we have a bunch of debt, either student loans or credit card debt,” 31-year-old Chris Nunn, who drives for the DoorDash delivery app, told the Times. “So we’re trapped.”
Dorsey told the outlet she has been trying to cut down debts accrued following various health issues for years. She is working three jobs to cut down her substantial debt.
Today, Americans are more pessimistic about the economy than they have been in a very long time.
It can be absolutely soul crushing to work as hard as you possibly can and still not have enough money for all the bills.
If you are feeling a tremendous amount of stress about your finances, you are certainly not alone.
According to one recent survey, approximately half of the entire population is struggling with mental health issues due to financial stress…
About half of U.S. adults are struggling with their mental health because of their financial situation.
Forty-seven percent of adults say concerns about money have, at least occasionally, caused anxiety, stress, worrisome thoughts, loss of sleep, depression or other effects, according to Bankrate’s latest Money and Mental Health Survey.
About 65% of them say their biggest concern is inflation and rising prices, and nearly 60% say their stress derives from paying for everyday expenses such as groceries and utilities. About 56% say they are worried about having enough emergency savings, and 47% are most concerned about being in debt, according to the survey.
After seeing numbers like that, how in the world can anyone possibly claim that the U.S. economy is in good shape?
The level of economic pain that we are already witnessing is absolutely staggering, and conditions are only going to get worse during the chaotic months and years that are ahead of us.
But even though our leaders continue to make incredibly reckless decision after incredibly reckless decision, many people out there continue to be convinced that everything is going to work out just fine somehow.
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Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
