(Mises Institute)—Many economic pundits predict that the United States and much of the world is either in a recession or about to enter one, depending upon one’s definition of the term “recession.” This brief essay is not intended to be a comprehensive explanation of what causes such economic cycles but rather the proper way to end them as quickly as possible.
Disequilibrium in the Stages of Production
A recession is merely the name for economic dislocations. The stages of production are out of equilibrium. Resources have been allocated to the wrong end products or the wrong stages of production. Consumer preferences have changed, or resources have been allocated by political factors rather than market factors. It really doesn’t matter the cause because the solution is always the same. Get rid of any and all bottlenecks that hinder the reallocation of the factors of production to meet the legitimate desires of the market.
Increasing Private Purchasing Power
There is one huge problem—the welfare state. One, but not all, of the goals of the welfare state is to provide assistance to workers and even companies who find that their cash flow has slowed, as in the case of companies, or even stopped, as in the case of worker layoffs. Government-funded welfare is designed to provide temporary assistance. The problem is that other government outlays are not reduced. No, welfare spending has become “an entitlement” and is always added onto existing spending. This means that the government takes an even-larger bite out of the only economy that matters, the free market economy. Murray N. Rothbard explained that the only spending that matters is “private purchasing power.”
In Making Economic Sense, Rothbard says, “All government taxation and spending diminishes saving and consumption by genuine producers, for the benefit of a parasitic burden of consumption spending by nonproducers.”
He elaborates on the subject in his magnum opus, Man, Economy, and State with Power and Market: “In short, strictly, the government’s productivity is not simply zero, but negative, for it has imposed a loss in productivity upon society.”
Since increased government spending must, by definition, reduce “private purchasing power,” welfare spending hinders the ability of the economy to recover just when more “private purchasing power” is needed most. Resources that should have been reallocated to new products and services desired by the public are instead reduced, not increased! Not only that, but welfare payments tend to disincentivize businesses from taking actions needed to redeploy their capital and to reduce labor’s incentive and ability to relocate or acquire new skills.
End Welfare
The solution is simple but difficult to enact. End both corporate and individual welfare. What? Force businesses to close, and throw great portions of the population into destitution? This need not be the case. It is essential that barriers are removed from reallocating capital and labor to where they are needed most urgently.
Furthermore, just as capitalists must be responsible for the financial health of their companies by saving when times are good and always being sensitive to the needs of the market, labor needs to be just as responsible. Both capital and labor need to save for a rainy day. Capital needs to invest continuously into more-productive processes, and labor needs to invest in personal skills that will be needed in the future. Unfortunately, profits from successful companies are taxed away at a high rate, and labor is subject to propaganda that the state will provide. It is a recipe for long, long recessions. Compare the post–World War I Warren Harding depression with the Herbert Hoover/Franklin D. Roosevelt depression of ten years later. Few know about the Harding depression because it ended so quickly. Everyone has heard of the Hoover/Roosevelt Great Depression of the 1930s.
Harding reduced the federal budget. Hoover and Roosevelt increased the federal budget and placed increased regulatory barriers upon the free reallocation of capital and labor. Lord John Maynard Keynes added insult to injury by abandoning Say’s law that production must precede consumption, enshrining the myth of increasing aggregate demand via money printing, deficits be hanged!
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
