(The Economic Collapse Blog)—What would we do if we suddenly couldn’t use the Internet or our phones any longer? For a lot of people, such a scenario would be unthinkable. In fact, it felt like the “world is ending” for many AT&T customers on Thursday. The disruption to AT&T’s network only lasted for a few hours, but it created quite a frenzy.
If we are going to see this much panic for an outage that happens for just a few hours, what would our society look like if Internet and phone communication was down for days, weeks or even months?
Once the outage began, federal authorities moved very rapidly to determine whether it was a cyberattack or not…
Federal agencies are ‘urgently investigating’ whether the massive cellular outage that plagued Americans on Thursday was a cyberattack.
The Federal Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) are on the hunt to track down what disrupted service AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile and a dozen other cellular providers.
While the agencies have not shared details, a security expert told DailyMail.com that the outage has hallmarks of a hack.
Lee McKnight, associate professor at Syracuse University in New York, said the widespread nature appears to be ‘a massive Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attack on core Internet infrastructure.’
I have a feeling that they will assure the general public that it was not a cyberattack no matter what they discover.
In situations such as these, keeping everyone calm is often deemed more important than telling them the truth.
Interestingly, pharmacies all over the U.S. were also having major problems on Thursday due to a cyberattack against “one of the biggest healthcare technology companies in the nation”…
Pharmacies all over the country are experiencing delays in prescription orders due to a cyberattack on one of the biggest healthcare technology companies in the nation, Change Healthcare.
Change Healthcare first noticed the “cyber security issue” affecting its networks on Wednesday morning on the East Coast.
According to Change Healthcare, it appears that a “nation-state associated cyber security threat actor” was involved in that attack…
In a statement the firm says it had ‘identified a suspected nation-state associated cyber security threat actor had gained access to some of the Change Healthcare information technology systems.’
Are the issues at AT&T and the issues at Change Healthcare related?
I have a feeling that they are, but I certainly cannot prove that.
In any event, the truth is that we have just been put on notice.
Our communication infrastructure is extremely vulnerable, and it can be attacked at literally any moment.
Today, there are a number of foreign powers that possess very robust cyberattack capabilities.
One of them is China, and the Washington Post is reporting on a trove of leaked documents that show that the Chinese “are attempting large-scale, systematic cyber intrusions against foreign governments, companies and infrastructure”…
A trove of leaked documents from a Chinese state-linked hacking group shows that Beijing’s intelligence and military groups are attempting large-scale, systematic cyber intrusions against foreign governments, companies and infrastructure — with hackers of one company claiming to be able to target users of Microsoft, Apple and Google.
The cache — containing more than 570 files, images and chat logs — offers an unprecedented look inside the operations of one of the firms that Chinese government agencies hire for on-demand, mass data-collecting operations.
Of course I have no idea if China was involved in the incidents that we witnessed today.
But without a doubt the Chinese have some of the most advanced cyberattack capabilities in the entire world.
On Thursday, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio ominously warned about what China could do to us if a full-scale war breaks out…
‘I don’t know the cause of the AT&T outage,’ said Sen. Marco Rubio, Fla., top Republican on the Intelligence Committee.
‘But I do know it will be 100 times worse when #China launches a cyber attack on America on the eve of a #Taiwan invasion. And it won’t be just cell service they hit, it will be your power, your water and your bank,’ he went on.
He is right.
But the Russians have similar capabilities.
So do the North Koreans.
Needless to say, it isn’t just our enemies that we need to be concerned about. An article that USA Today just posted explained that there are many ways that natural disasters could cause communication disruptions “for an extended period of time”…
While cell service in the U.S. is typically fairly dependable and Thursday’s issues were limited in scope, there’s a long list of potential emergency situations when cell phones could become unreliable, according to Alyssa Provencio, professor at the University of Central Oklahoma who oversees the disaster management certificate program.
Communication issues are the norm in a disaster, not an anomaly, Provencio said. Some scenarios like snow storms, strong wind, torrential rain, fire, and tornadoes may affect a small number of people. Others, like major earthquakes, solar flares or cyberattacks, have the potential to disrupt communications for millions of people for an extended period of time.
Let’s talk about solar activity for a moment.
Because it is just a matter of time before a massive solar storm fries our communication infrastructure, and our politicians have not been preparing for such an event.
The Earth experienced a direct hit from an enormous solar storm in 1859, and if such a storm hit us today the consequences would be catastrophic…
AT&T fell victim to a solar flare in 1972 that interrupted landline services.
The storm that hit Earth was compared to the event in 1859 known as the Carrington Event, which saw the most intense geomagnetic storm in recorded history.
If such a solar storm were to happen in today’s world, the effects would be catastrophic on our communications systems.
A meteorologist shared online that a solar flare had erupted from the sun around midnight on Thursday, noting that the ‘timing is interesting.’
This is one of the reasons why many of us are watching solar activity so closely.
On Thursday, the most powerful flare of Solar Cycle 25 was unleashed, and if scientists determine that it is heading directly toward Earth we could have a major problem on our hands…
Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X6.3-class solar flare from sunspot AR3590 (Feb. 22 @ 2234 UT). This is the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25, and the third X-flare the sunspot has produced in a 24 hour period. Stay tuned for updates about this explosion, especially whether or not it has hurled a CME toward Earth.
Hopefully we will not have to face such a scenario any time soon.
But USA Today says that there are some things that all of us should be doing to prepare for the day when some type of emergency does cause extended disruptions…
- Cash: It’s a good idea to have cash on hand in case you can’t use mobile payment options or ATMs are down, said James Kendra, co-director of the Disaster Research Center at the University of Delaware.
- Paper copies of important documents: “One of the things that I stress to everybody is to have paper copies of all of your important documents,” he also said. That means a printed out bank statement so you have all your account numbers, a printed insurance statement, phone bill and mortgage or rent documents, so that you have the numbers available you might typically go online to get.
- Landline: If you don’t have a landline, you might still be able to use your cell to send SMS text messages or use Wi-Fi to send messages or make calls.
- A radio: This is always a good thing to have to receive emergency updates, Provencio said, but if you don’t have one in your home, chances are you do have one in your car.
I think that having a solar-powered radio is so important.
When global events spin wildly out of control, you will want to have access to news and information.
We really are living in unprecedented times.
In all of human history, there has never been a “cyberwar”, and so we don’t know exactly what one would look like.
But it is clear that our communication infrastructure is extremely vulnerable, and what we just witnessed should definitely be a wake up call for all of us.
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
Americans continue to be the most ignorant people on Earth. I said over 20 years ago if we don’t put traps in our systems to catch and thwart these smart alecks we would have to deal with more and more of these attacks. I, also, said that we have to get all of our most important defense systems OFF of the INTERNET and onto government special circuits, that is, dedicated lines not accessible to the public in any way. Yet, what do I know, I only spent my entire working career in telecommunications?