(Conservative Playbook)—There have been high hopes for the GOP-led House of Representatives ever since Kevin McCarthy was ousted and Mike Johnson promoted to Speaker of the House. Johnson is a Christian and conservative, and some said he was a fighter as well.
That last label has been debated but the debate may be over. He recently declared that he would not use the risk shutting down the government if the border crisis wasn’t addressed. That’s not what a fighter would do, and while some would say it’s all some sort of 4D chess or something, I’m not seeing it. The most important power the House has is over the purse and if a Speaker is unwilling to use that power to solve the most pressing crisis this nation currently faces, then his chess moves are futile.
Here’s the clip in question:
As some in the House GOP threaten to halt government funding until President Biden signs their border security proposals into law, @SpeakerJohnson tells @margbrennan the government won't shut down – but his members "understand this is a critical issue." Tune in Sunday for more. pic.twitter.com/94Rf8Pu6nS
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) January 5, 2024
Johnson’s response was not impressive. He had an opportunity to play off Representative Chip Roy’s threat and instead he diffused it for the “Face the Nation” audience.
Bonchie over at Red State took a more nuanced approach to Johnson’s strategy:
Reactions to this will likely vary. On the one hand, how effective would a government shutdown over the border even be? It is clear that Democrats do not fear any political backlash associated with the issue. Instead, they would likely just use it as messaging fodder in an election year, and perhaps with some success.
On the other hand, some would question what the point of electing Republicans to office is if they aren’t going to use all the leverage they’ve got. Part of politics is being willing to stand up for what’s right even if there is a risk it might not work. Would a shutdown do more harm than good to Republicans? I honestly don’t know, and I don’t think anybody truly does. Is that an excuse to not make a stand, though?
I suppose it’s debatable, and while it may seem like I’m making a definitive judgment, I’m not. I can see both sides of the argument. Much in life boils down to risk and reward. Can Democrats even be swayed in this environment by applying pressure? Or is it better to have a strategy solely focused on winning more power in 2024 to neutralize Democrat input? Again, it’s a fair question that fair people can come to different conclusions on.
Still, this latest move from Johnson does bring us back to the elephant in the room, which is what exactly was gained by the fight to oust Kevin McCarthy as Speaker? Has there been a distinct shift in governance? I would say, not really. We still ended up with a continuing resolution, and now we are getting the same strategy regarding avoiding a shutdown at all costs. Those were the two major issues that got McCarthy booted.
To reiterate, this article is not a criticism of Johnson. I like him as a person (far more than McCarthy), and I think he’s doing what he can with what he’s got to work with, which is an extremely slim majority. I don’t know if I agree with all his decisions, but I’m not suggesting it was a mistake to make him Speaker.
While Bonchie seems to be giving Johnson the benefit of the doubt, I will not. Call me naive but I see this as a no-brainer. The American people understand that there’s a crisis and they want it solved. As bad as the GOP is at optics, surely they can position a move to fix the border as a positive reason to play hardball with a government shutdown.
Is Johnson better than McCarthy? Yes. But being better and ACTING better are two different things. Thus far I’ve seen nothing done by Johnson that wouldn’t have been done by McCarthy.
Like Bonchie, I’m not going to pass judgment from a clip. But if the GOP caves to fund the government without major action taken to secure the border, than I’ll be far more critical of Johnson’s short tenure with the gavel.
Two Storms, One Harvest
Every food crisis in living memory has been a one-shock event. The 2008 price spike was a commodity bubble. The 2020 shortages were a logistics failure. The 2022 grain scare was a war on one exporter’s ports. Each time, the system bent, adjusted, and recovered, and each time the experts assured us afterward that global markets are simply too big and too diversified to fail.
What nobody in Washington seems eager to discuss is that 2026 is shaping up to be something the modern food system has never actually faced. Two independent shocks, one climatic and one geopolitical, are converging on the same harvest cycle at the same time. Not sequentially. Simultaneously.
Start with the weather. The Pacific Ocean is currently building toward what forecasters now openly call a record event. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of at least a strong El Niño near 88 percent, with roughly two in three odds it reaches “very strong” status, the tier reserved for perhaps three or four events in the entire satellite era. Every major global model now projects a median peak in Super El Niño territory, and most of them project it exceeding the 2015-16 event, which until now held the modern record. Sea surface anomalies were already brushing the super threshold in mid-July, months before these events normally peak. The atmosphere has already shifted into El Niño mode, and the event is forecast to crest in late fall and early winter.
This is not about “climate change.” It’s about the standard cycles of weather, and the cycle we’re currently in is one that has likely devastated societies in the past. We’re better prepared as a society today, but not all Americans are equally prepared.
Serious households have started doing the quiet math on their own. Grocery bills tell part of the story, and the forecast maps tell the rest, which is why long-term food storage has moved from fringe hobby to mainstream line item in the family budget, with established suppliers like Heaven’s Harvest seeing demand from people who five years ago would have rolled their eyes at the idea. That instinct is not paranoia. It is pattern recognition, and the pattern is worth walking through carefully.
Editor’s Note: Heaven’s Harvest IS a sponsor, but the warnings of this article are real and would be written even if we didn’t have a survival food sponsor. With that said, those who take advantage of what they offer can use promo code “Patriot” for 15% off.
The Fertilizer Clock Is Already Running
While the Pacific warms, the second shock has been unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict with Iran turned the world’s most important energy chokepoint into a contested waterway, and the consequences reach far beyond the gas pump. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz, and the disruption sent urea prices up 86 percent year over year by March, with a 53 percent jump in a single month.
The World Bank projects energy prices rising about 24 percent in 2026 and fertilizer about 31 percent. By its own accounting, fertilizer prices ran 35 percent higher in the first five months of this year than the same period last year.
Here is the mechanism the nightly news will not explain. Fertilizer is not a grocery item. It is a time-delayed input. The nitrogen a farmer in Iowa or Punjab could not afford to apply this spring does not show up as a problem this spring. It shows up as a thinner harvest six to twelve months later.
The World Bank’s own food security brief concedes that the effects of reduced applications earlier this season “are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.” Translate that from institutional language into plain English and it means this. The damage is already done, it is already in the ground, and we are simply waiting for it to arrive on the shelf.
Now check the calendar. Six to twelve months from the spring planting season lands us squarely in late 2026 and early 2027. Which is precisely when the strongest El Niño in the instrumental record is forecast to peak, bringing its signature droughts to Southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil, and South Asia, the very regions that grow the world’s rice, sugar, and oilseeds.
The World Bank warns openly that a strong El Niño “could disrupt multiple crop belts simultaneously” on top of the conflict-driven input costs. Their baseline projection assumes the Middle East disruptions ease by autumn. What in the last two years of Middle East history suggests that assumption is safe?
The System Has No Slack Left
The comfortable answer is that global markets always adjust. But adjustment requires slack, and the slack is gone. Global cereal production is expected to decline from last year’s records even before El Niño does its work. The UN World Food Programme, hardly a den of right-wing preppers, is calling this the most significant disruption to its supply chains since Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, and its supply chain director put the stakes bluntly.
Today’s supply chain challenges are tomorrow’s hunger crisis.
There is also a political dimension that markets cannot price. When food gets scarce, governments do not behave like economists. They behave like politicians. Export bans, hoarding mandates, and panic buying at the national level turned the modest rice shortfall of 2008 into a global crisis, and analysts are already warning that import-dependent nations are the first dominoes.
The 2015-16 Super El Niño, a far weaker event than what is now forecast, threw tens of millions into food stress across Africa and Asia. This one is projected to be stronger, and it arrives with fertilizer already rationed by price and shipping lanes already contested by missiles.
What Joseph Knew
Scripture does not treat preparation for lean years as faithlessness. It treats it as wisdom delivered in advance to those willing to act on it.
Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt: And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt.
Joseph did not respond to that warning with a hashtag or a committee. He stored grain during the years of abundance, and when the famine came, Egypt stood while its neighbors begged. The lesson is not that famine is certain. It is that the time to prepare is precisely when preparation still looks optional.
Nobody who filled a pantry in a year of plenty has ever regretted it, and nobody standing in an empty aisle has ever been glad he waited for certainty.
None of this calls for panic, and panic is the enemy of sound judgment anyway. It calls for the same unglamorous prudence our grandparents considered ordinary. Keep some cash margin, know your local growers, and put real food in deep storage while it is cheap and available, because the entire arc of this story is that cheap and available is a closing window.
Families looking for a straightforward place to start can visit Heaven’s Harvest and use promo code Patriot for 15 percent off long-term storable food. The forecasts may yet soften, the strait may yet reopen, and we should pray they do. But hope is a fine thing to hold and a foolish thing to eat.
