(International Man)—If you watch our podcast Doug Casey’s Take, you already know. We’re in the middle of a complex and destructive phase full of unknowns. Our goal with The Phyle is to focus on solutions. To make progress, we must clearly articulate the problem.
Amidst this chaotic phase, it’s impossible to predict even the near future. The best we can do is form a hypothesis and orient our actions around it. Today I’m going to lay out my process and conclusions. I hope that they will be as useful to you as they have been to me.
Assumptions
We’ve been taught that assumptions are bad. They make an “ass” out of “u” and “me”. But, that’s not always true. I developed a set of assumptions about the future to build a framework of understanding. I use that framework to identify what IS in my control and what is NOT in my control.
The things outside our control, we can stop worrying about. They’re not up to us. Instead, our concern is what IS in our control and all our energy and resources should be dedicated there.
Before I get to the assumptions I’m operating under. Let me say – They are assumptions not predictions. I could be wrong. Hell – I hope I’m wrong. But with nearly three years of the “Great Reset” under our belt, I bet you’ll agree – they have merit.
None of this should be taken as a blackpill. No problem can be solved without sober identification and acceptance. of the nature of the challenge. That’s all we’re doing here. With that in mind, here are the 11 assumptions I’m using today to guide my actions.
1. Less Freedom of movement. There will be more effort so to restrict and regulate our freedom of movement. From Vax passports to increased visa requirements and 15-min city initiatives – a grid is being constructed to regulate our freedom of movement.
2. A CBDC is coming. Cash will be eliminated. How restrictive it may end up being, I don’t know. But, CBDC is a foregone conclusion. Timing? BIS publishes estimates of 14 retail CBDC and 9 wholesale by 2030. And there are indications that the major economies are working to be ready to deploy by 2025.
3. The digital ID is already here. Biometrics are the future. If you have a government issued ID associated with your photograph, you are in the system already. How the ID is deployed and enforced is the only question.
No more passport or boarding passes pic.twitter.com/miNoY0uciL
— karma (@karma44921039) September 21, 2023
4. GFC 2.0 and/or the Greater Depression. Timing is hard. But, can any thinking person imagine how the outcome can be avoided altogether. Simon Hunt suggests a market pullback of up to 30% between now and early 2024 followed by a pump and a deflationary wipeout in 2025.
5. Most of my financial assets will disappear at some point. Inflation, bank bail-in, market wipe out, or Great Taking. I don’t know the cause, but I assume physical assets are where I need to be, ultimately.
6. Increasing crime & disorder. You’ve seen the videos. Whether, driven by economic desperation, mass migration, the inversion of law, or in the name of social justice. Crime and disorder will grow and lead to greater physical threats to our lives and property from our fellow man. This makes urban environments, especially but not exclusively, a real risk.
7. Supply constraints are increasing around all commodities – from food to energy. Tight supplies are showing up everywhere. Live Cattle, long dormant, hit an all-time high recently. Oil Prices are up 30% in the last three months. 40% of Argentina’s wheat crop is in poor to fair condition and protectionist policies are on the rise globally.
8. WW3 is coming. A good case can be made that it’s already begun. The Army War College recently published a study suggesting that the All Volunteer Force had reached the end of its useful life. With the military struggling with recruiting, conscription is likely at some point.
9. Censorship and Digital Control will enter a new phase. Deplatforming, de-banking, shadow banning, and social media account suspensions will increase. Centralized digital services of all kinds should be considered suspect and, very likely, dangerous to use in the future.
🚨URGENT: The Secretary-General of the @UN, @antonioguterres, wants to silence anyone who dares to stand in the way of their global power grab.
The UN, once a beacon of hope and peace, has devolved into a totalitarian entity and thus needs to be dismantled. pic.twitter.com/iH9ChwDkv9
— Dr. Simon Goddek (@goddeketal) September 23, 2023
UN Chief calls “dis-information” a clear and present global threat.
10. The US election – regardless of the outcome – is an inflection point and potentially a flash point. IF it happens, the outcome will not be accepted by half of the country. I’ve heard from more than one source, publicly and privately, that there may not be a 2024 election. Who knows? We can be sure of is that running up to and shortly after the election, things could get wild. In advance of the 2020 election we had Covid and BLM. Shortly after, J6 and state overreach. What will 2024 bring?
11. There is a war happening today. It’s a war on us. The primary battleground is within the sphere of 5GW – informational/psychological. Where I’ve been wrong in the last three years, it’s been in my assumption that kinetic coercion would be utilized. As we can see, much progress has been made in the Great Reset without the need for kinetic tactics. For most of this cycle, they will rely on this same approach. If/When we see a move toward kinetic force, we should be alarmed because we will have entered a new and more dangerous phase.
Do you disagree with any of my assumptions? Did I miss anything? Let me know. I see all of the assumptions as “Out of my control”. They may not come to pass, but whether they do or not is not up to me. Of course, I’ll continue to speak out against them. If enough of us do, it may help. Possibly.
Since these unfortunate outcomes are out of my control, I don’t worry about them. And free from the burden of unsolvable problems, I can fully devote my energy and resources to what IS within my control.
Members of The Phyle have been doing exactly that over the last year. Much progress has been made. And there’s much more we can do. Let’s focus there.
Three Reasons a Coffee Gift Set From This Christian Company Is Perfect for Christmas
When you’re searching for a Christmas gift that’s meaningful, useful, and rooted in faith, you don’t want to settle for anything generic. This season is filled with noise — mass-produced products, last-minute picks, and trends that fade as quickly as they appear. But one gift stands apart because it blends genuine quality with a message that matters: a coffee gift set from Promised Grounds Coffee.
This small Christian-owned company has become a favorite among believers who want to support faith-driven businesses while giving friends and family something they’ll actually enjoy. Here are three reasons a Promised Grounds Coffee gift set may be the most thoughtful and impactful present you give this year.
1. It’s Truly Delicious Coffee
Too many “gift-worthy” coffees look beautiful in the package but disappoint when the cup is poured. Promised Grounds takes the opposite approach — exceptional taste first, thoughtful presentation second.
Their beans are sourced with care, roasted in small batches, and crafted to bring out a rich, smooth flavor profile that appeals to both casual drinkers and true coffee lovers. Whether someone enjoys bold, dark roasts or lighter, more delicate blends, every sip reflects quality that stands shoulder-to-shoulder with the biggest specialty brands.
Simply put: this coffee is good. Really good. Some say it’s absolutely fantastic. If you want a gift that won’t be re-gifted, ignored, or shoved in a cabinet, this is it.
2. It Spreads the Word While Serving a Real Purpose
There are many Christian gifts that are meaningful… but not exactly practical. There are also useful gifts that have nothing to do with faith. Promised Grounds Coffee bridges both worlds beautifully.
Each gift set delivers an encouraging, faith-centered message through its packaging and presentation — a simple but powerful reminder of God’s goodness during the Christmas season. The cups are especially popular and serve as a daily reminder of the blessings from our Lord. At the same time, the product itself is something people will actually use and appreciate every single day.
It’s a gift that uplifts the spirit and fills the mug. A gift that points loved ones toward Scripture while still being part of the normal rhythm of life. And in a culture that increasingly pushes faith to the margins, giving a gift that quietly but confidently honors Christ can make a deeper impact than you might expect.
3. It’s Affordable, Valuable, and Elegantly Presented
Many people want to give something meaningful without breaking their Christmas budget. Promised Grounds Coffee strikes that perfect balance — the sets look and feel premium, but the price remains accessible.
The packaging is classy, clean, and gift-ready, making it ideal for:
- Family members of all ages
- Co-workers or employees
- Church friends or small-group leaders
- Hosts, neighbors, and last-minute gift needs
It’s the kind of gift that feels more expensive than it is — and more thoughtful than most of what you’ll find on store shelves.
The Perfect Blend of Faith, Flavor, and Christmas Cheer
A coffee gift set from Promised Grounds Coffee checks every box: a gift that tastes amazing, conveys your faith, supports a Christian business, and brings daily enjoyment to the person who receives it. In a season when so many gifts are forgotten, this one stands out for all the right reasons.
If you want a Christmas present that reflects your values and delivers genuine joy, Promised Grounds Coffee is the perfect place to start.
